U.S. Open draw analysis: Alcaraz, Djokovic, Shelton, and Fils in stacked bottom half

U.S. Open qualifying was delayed by rain for a day, but it finally came to end on Friday and the draw is now set. Qualifier — and two lucky losers — have been placed, so the festivities at Flushing Meadows are ready to begin. This tournament appears to be the most wide-open men’s singles majors in recent memory. Jannik Sinner is out with a knee injury and Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t played in more than four months. As if that isn’t enough, Novak Djokovic struggled mightily in Cincinnati and Alexander Zverev’s hard-court summer has been lackluster at best.

Who has the best chance to take advantage of a huge opportunity? With the tournament beginning on Sunday, it’s time to break down the 2026 U.S. Open men’s singles draw.  

Zverev’s quarter

Zverev has a favorable path to the title in a much weaker top half, but he is not alone as a beneficiary of Thursday’s draw ceremony. Rafael Jodar also could not have asked for a more ideal spot in the bracket. The 19-year-old Spaniard’s nearest seed is Casper Ruud, who will either play at less than 100 percent or withdraw from the event altogether. Jodar’s nearest top-eight seed is Alex de Minaur, who has struggled dating back to the French Open.

Best first-round matchup — (13) Lorenzo Musetti vs. Arthur Fery

The rankings suggest that this is Musetti’s match to win, but the Italian has struggled with injuries pretty much this entire season. Meanwhile, Fery is playing the best tennis of his career — highlighted by a run to the Wimbledon semifinals earlier in the summer. The Brit currently finds himself in the Winston-Salem title match. Both guys are proven winners on the big stage of Grand Slams, so this should be a fun one.

Best potential second-round matchup – (6) Alex de Minaur vs. Botic van de Zandschulp

Best potential third-round matchup – (1) Alexander Zverev vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Possible surprises – Zverev did not play well in either Montreal or Cincinnati. If the German’s woes continue, either Musetti or Grigor Dimitrov could end up stealing his quarterfinal spot. Also watch out of Botic van de Zandschulp. The Dutchman is playing well, advanced to the U.S. Open quarterfinals in 2021, and upset Alcaraz in the U.S. Open second round in 2024.

Auger-Aliassime’s quarter

Everyone wants to be in Auger-Aliassime’s section of the bracket. After all, that means you avoid Zverev, Alcaraz, and Djokovic. It’s not like any of those guys are unbeatable at the moment, but Auger-Aliassime’s quarter is especially wide open. The Canadian is by no means in great form, and the same goes for No. 5 seed Flavio Cobolli. It is a dream draw for Taylor Fritz, who finished runner-up to Sinner at this tournament in 2024. An all-American quarterfinal between Fritz and Learner Tien is very possible.

Best first-round matchup — (17) Jakub Mensik vs. (LL) Shintaro Mochizuki

Is this a must-watch showdown? No, but that’s simply the story in the top half of the draw — which is uninspiring at best. That being said, this could turn out to be a great match. Mochizuki needed a lucky-loser spot in the main draw, but at least he won two matches before bowing out of qualifying. The 23-year-old from Japan beat Jodar en route to the Wimbledon fourth round, so a big win at a slam would be nothing new.

Best potential second-round matchup – (14) Learner Tien vs. Gael Monfils

Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Flavio Cobolli vs. (28) Alexander Blockx

Possible surprises — Karen Khachanov isn’t just unseeded; he has fallen all the way down to 49th in the world. Still, this is a guy who has either reached the semifinals or two quarterfinals at all four Grand Slams. He simply knows what he is doing on the big stage. There is no reason why he can’t upset Auger-Aliassime in round two, after which a quarterfinal run would be realistic. A fourth-round appearance for Alexander Blockx or Nishesh Basavareddy could be possible in Cobolli’s half of this section.

Djokovic’s quarter

As recently as a few years ago, Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev being on a collision course for the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam would have been the story of the draw. Not so much these days. Now, that potential matchup is an afterthought. Instead, all eyes will be on Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima in this quarter of the bracket — and on a first-round battle between Matteo Berrettini and Stan Wawrinka. Tiafoe and Nakashima were the recent Masters 1000 runner-ups in Cincinnati and Montreal, respectively. They could go head-to-head in the quarterfinals at Flushing Meadows.

Best first-round matchup — Matteo Berrettini vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka’s last-ever match at Wimbledon came against Berrettini, and it was a 6-7(7), 7-6(16), 7-6(7), 7-6(5) thriller. The Swiss’ finale at the U.S. Open could come against the very same opponent. Wawrinka was controversially denied a wild card initially, but the USTA reversed course when Patrick Kypson’s wild card became available earlier this week. The 41-year-old is effectively on second life already in New York, and the fans should benefit from that fact. The winner of this one will likely meet Djokovic in round two.

Best potential second-round matchup – (4) Novak Djokovic vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka

Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Brandon Nakashima vs. (23) Andrey Rublev

Possible surprises — Tiafoe and Nakashima are playing so well that neither would be considered a “surprise” U.S. Open semifinalist. In fact, they are the only seeded players who I don’t see going out early in this section. If Berrettini beats Wawrinka, watch out for him against Djokovic (that has more to do with Djokovic, of course, than it does with Berrettini). As for Medvedev, Raphael Collignon or Terence Atmane could put the Russian on an early flight out of New York.

Alcaraz’s quarter

Get your popcorn ready for a potential fourth-round showdown featuring Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils. Shelton lifted the trophy in Montreal before Fils matched him with a Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati. If that matchup becomes a reality on the middle Sunday in NYC, the winner will have golden opportunity to go all the way. As for Alcaraz’s road, Roman Safiullin is an immediate roadblock that must be taken seriously. Jaime Faria (round two) and Tommy Paul (round four) would also be dangerous.

Best first-round matchup — (10) Arthur Fils vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

On paper this is one of the two marquee matchups of the entire first round along with Berrettini vs. Wawrinka. History, however, indicates that it could be a blowout. Fils already leads the head-to-head series 5-0 and humiliated Tsitsipas 6-0, 6-1 in their most recent meeting at the Miami Masters this spring. The Greek has taken only one set off the Frenchman. Moreover, Fils is coming off a title in Cincinnati and Tsitsipas is traditionally terrible at the U.S. Open. Still, this is a two-time major finalist we are talking about. You never know if this is the time he will wake up and compete with Fils. 

Best potential second-round matchup – (8) Ben Shelton vs. Hubert Hurkacz

Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Alexander Bublik vs. (20) Tommy Paul 

Possible surprises — Would Alcaraz losing early — if not even right away — really be a surprise? It shouldn’t be. Coming back from four months away and immediately diving into best-of-five tennis is not a recipe for success. Given that both Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik haven’t played at all during the hard-court summer, Tommy Paul and Thiago Agustin Tirante have a real shot at emerging from that section and reaching the quarterfinals.

• X
• Facebook
• Instagram
• Bluesky