United Cup Group D preview and prediction: Nadal vs. De Minaur

Rafael Nadal Australian Open
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Rafael Nadal will take the court for Team Spain again in Sydney, this time against Australia’s Alex de Minaur.

World No. 2 Rafael Nadal had an unsuccessful opening match of United Cup group play against Great Britain’s Cam Norrie. The Spaniard took the first set, but the rust from his long 2022 injury layoff crept back in and Norrie was able to snag the win for the Brits in three sets.

On Monday Nadal will face the ultra-fit Alex de Minaur. The Aussie is ranked 24th in the world. He had a moderately successful year in 2022, capturing a second Atlanta title to go along with a round of 16 effort at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon. De Minaur has played Nadal three times previously and has not managed a win at this point. His style of play, which relies heavily on his foot speed and tenacity, hasn’t matched up well against Nadal — who is speedy in his own right but with the added weapon of his bludgeoning forehand.

Alex de Minaur

The good news for De Minaur is that his opponent isn’t firing at 100% these days. Nadal is better positioned for success at the start of the season when he has the chance to work his way into a tournament against lower-ranked opponents in the opening rounds. The United Cup format pits the world No. 2 against other top seeds right away.

De Minaur is Australian, but the benefit of “home-field advantage” might be a little less impactful than it might otherwise be. The Aussies have traditionally proven to be a pro-Nadal crowd, so he’ll have plenty of support on Monday.

Like Norrie, De Minaur is facing a Nadal that isn’t at his best. Expect the Aussie to have more chances than usual as Nadal looks to find his range.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3

Ricky pick: De Minaur in 3

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15 Comments on United Cup Group D preview and prediction: Nadal vs. De Minaur

  1. Permanently injured lost six out of his last seven matches, I don’t have doubts he’ll bounce back and defend his AO title, as long as he gets his “proper foot injections”.

  2. I just saw Rafa lost again. This is starting to be seriously worrying. He would have been far better playing a tournament like last year where he could play himself into form against weaker players.
    He has scarcely won a match since wimby and I sometimes don’t understand his decision making.
    Rafa is a confidence player whose level drops when he gets anxious so I was very very unenthusiastic about his playing Paris and the wtf as I thought he would lose badly and be worse off than if he didn’t play and tried to fix his serve. I mean what is going on with how terrible it is? I haven’t seen him play this year but everyone says his first serve is poor.
    Also where is Moya?!! All the photos I have seen show Lopez and Marceto. He really needs help from Carlos.
    Sanju said Rafa had 0% of winning AO. Now obvious ly this is wildly pessimistic but it’s hard right now to see him doing well. He is defending a lot of points early this year.

    • Another worrying thing is that Rafa lost matches where he won the first set. Very bad sign mentally.
      Norrie and D e Minaur aren’t great players and neither has a big serve. God knows what the scoreline would be against bigger servers.

    • Still protecting the abdominal muscles I think. Serve motion seems restricted. Ball toss more in front so will be tough to hit kick serves and even huge flat serves. It will be difficult if serve is hampered.

  3. Apart from serve rest of the game looks good is what I’m told ..yes unforced errors more than usual of the fh wing but that will clean up with practice.

    About the serve God knows what’s going on..

    N wtf..Moya not there ? Like seriously? I thought he does not travel only for wimby…

    I still maintain no chance at AO…only chance is RG and wimby ..I still think 1 slam this year he will win..

    Everyone expecting Novak to take revenge n dominate..I doubt that will happen either .he too may win just 1 ..outside chance of 2

    I think by year end it will be 23 each or 23 rafa 22 Novak…

    BTW where are Ricky’s posts on GS winners n top 10 that he usually does end of year

    • I am very cheese d off that Moya isn’t there. He already misses wimby. Missing 2 slams is absurd. Now Rafa only has Lopez who is really a glorified friend and someone who he has never worked with before.
      Rafa can’t win without a good serve.
      What worries me most is Rafa’s mental state. There is footage of him during the match with demon saying to Marc that he had no confidence. This is kind of a reminder of the USO when he was saying that he was feeling very anxious. It’s very hard to see how he can progress with a weak serve and no confidence/ maybe still anxious.
      All the more reason Moya should be here.

  4. I think so much depends on the draw. Novak as the 5th seed is a potentially disastrous situation. Could be getting very tough qtr finals and if he is pushed to 5 sets, who knows his recovery isn’t quite what it used to be. Also, where will Kyrgios, Rune etc. be in the draw?

    The draw is crucial. We can comment more specifically once we have it in front.

    • I agree about the draw. Was thinking about that today and constructing a wonderful fantasy where Rafa gets a cup cake draw the first 3 rounds then doesn’t have to face main seeds who lose until semis. Then he just has to play one big match to get to the final. In my fantasy, Novak is in the opposite side of the draw and goes out to an inspired Med!😀
      The absolute worst of course is getting Novak in the quarters. I give him just about zero chance in his current form against Novak.
      It is possible to get a draw which opens up for you and play yourself into form. If he won one big match he would suddenly play a 1000 times better.
      I think most of his problems are mental.

  5. Rafa won’t play kyrgios in 3rd n rune in 4th…their rankings indicate they will be drawn with 5 to 8 and not 1 to 4

    However qf for rafa can be scary…med ,Novak, felix ,rublev…except rublev all are scary

    N btw rafa can drop to 3 as tisitsipas can jump to 2 by winning united cup matches

    • Maybe he will. But normally he flies out before. I have googled to try and find out and nothing comes up.
      He was there with Rafa in December last year.
      It’s odd that no one is commenting on it anywhere.

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