U.S. Open semifinal expert picks: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic

Expert picks are back for the blockbuster U.S. Open semifinal matchup between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. A three-team panel makes its predictions for Friday’s showdown.

Ricky: There is no real debate over who is going to win this match. The question is if it’s going to be competitive. At first glance it’s tempting to back Alcaraz to simply blow Djokovic off the court in swift fashion. When you dig it, though, it’s hard to entirely discount Djokovic. Most importantly, this is a Grand Slam we are talking about. Djokovic cares about these tournaments and these tournaments only at this point in his career. Impressively, he is 4-for-4 in making semifinal trips at the four slams in 2025. He looked good in the last two rounds against Jan-Lennard Struff and Taylor Fritz after once again just going through the motions in week one. And then there’s the head-to-head: Djokovic leads it 5-3 and has won two in a row over Alcaraz. Only one of their four major meetings has ended in straight sets. All of this is to say that Djokovic can keep it close for a while before Alcaraz wears him down and takes control. The world No. 2 is 44-2 in his last 46 matches dating back to the start of the clay-court swing. One loss was to Jannik Sinner; the other was due to injury. Djokovic falls to 0-4 in slam semis this year. Alcaraz in 4: 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3, 6-3.

Cheryl: I’m not claiming to be clairvoyant or have the ability to read Djokovic’s mind, but I have to think he’s grateful to be in Alcaraz’s half of the draw and not Sinner’s. Alcaraz he can beat. In fact, he did so just this year. Admittedly, it was at the Australian Open — Djokovic’s best slam and Alcaraz’s worst. The narrative changes a little bit in New York. But still, Alcaraz doesn’t routinely spank Djokovic the way Sinner does. So that’s the good news for the GOAT. The bad news is that Alcaraz is playing better tennis than Djokovic. Taylor Fritz had 762 chances to break Djokovic’s serve (okay, fine…. 13) and only managed to convert twice. And the American still took a set. So did Zachary Svajda and Cameron Norrie. In short, the 38-year-old has looked vulnerable. The truth of it is that as long as Alcaraz and Sinner are active in the draw, Djokovic is no longer the favorite. Look for Alcaraz to exploit the Serb’s age and slightly questionable fitness. Alcaraz in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Sinner continue to fast forward their way through the first five rounds at majors and arrive in the semifinals in 2025. With Sinner and Alcaraz firmly entrenched as the top two players on the ATP Tour, it is a matter of who would face Djokovic in the semis. At the Australian Open, in the quarterfinals, Djokovic came from a set down to defeat Alcaraz in four. At Roland Garros and Wimbledon, Sinner prevailed over the Serb in straight sets in the semis. Alcaraz, the recent Cincinnati Champion and 2022 U.S. Open winner, has not dropped a set in New York, has won two sets by bagels, and has played just one tiebreaker. Djokovic, a four-time champ and 10-time finalist in New York, lost two sets along the way to the semis. They have played eight times–Djokovic has won five, including the last two as well as all three matches on hard courts in their H2H. This will be the first time they meet at the U.S. Open and they now will have played at all four majors. Despite the fact that the overall and recent history in their meetings are on the side of the 24-time major winner, Alcaraz continues his fine form and will be able to stave off a valiant effort by Djokovic. Alcaraz in 4: 7-5, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4).