Americans are representing in the bottom half of the draw as the U.S. Open heads into week 2, with Frances Tiafoe taking on Daniil Medvedev and Alex Michelsen in action against Tomas Martin Etcheverry on Sunday.
(11) Frances Tiafoe vs. (7) Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev owns this matchup and it isn’t close. He leads 6-1, he hasn’t lost to Frances Tiafoe since a qualifying match on clay in Nice back in 2015. Not just that, but the last two meetings were one-sided. Brisbane in January took him 59 minutes to prevail 6-3, 6-2. The 2020 U.S. Open fourth round finished 6-4, 6-1, 6-0. Both men arrived in the round of 16 without much fuss. Tiafoe took out Valentin Vacherot 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 with 30 winners against 13 unforced errors and 85 percent of his first-serve points won. Medvedev handled Arthur Rinderknech 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 and still hasn’t dropped a set in New York.
Here’s why I’m going the other way. First, is the home-court advantage. The U.S. Open crowd loves Tiafoe and he gets energy from them. He also had a cyst removed from his wrist in early August and then came straight back and made the Cincinnati final, beating Learner Tien and Felix Auger-Aliassime back-to-back. That’s the best week he has put together in two years. Tiafoe also survived Martin Damm in five sets in the opening round, finishing just before 1:00 am — and Damm is the same player who ran Medvedev off the court at Winston-Salem. I just think Tiafoe has looked better in the last couple of rounds.
Cheryl pick: Tiafoe in 4
Ricky pick: Tiafoe in 4
(27) Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Alex Michelsen
Neither of these two had been this far at Flushing Meadows before, and they have never faced each other anywhere. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is the first Argentine man in the U.S. Open round of 16 since Diego Schwartzman in 2021. Alex Michelsen has been the quieter story. He hasn’t lost a set all tournament; he knocked out 16th seed Brandon Nakashima in the second round and he came through Daniel Merida 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-3.
The surface numbers make this look simpler than the seedings do. Etcheverry is 8-8 on hard courts in 2026 and his breakthrough title in Rio de Janeiro came on the dirt. Michelsen is 20-10 on hards this year with a semifinal in Brisbane. Etcheverry has the bigger serve and the better major record this season at 5-3, and if this turns into a three-hour grind he won’t mind one bit. I just don’t think Michelsen lets it get there. He is serving well, playing at home, and is the better hard-court player in this matchup. I’m giving the nod to Michelsen, but with the American dropping a set.
Cheryl pick: Michelsen in 4
Ricky pick: Michelsen in 3
WWW?
I wouldn’t put so much stock into Tiafoe outlasting Damm. I watched Marozan break Damm’s spirit, with his impenetrable wall style, so Damm has a lot of quit in him, even if he’s in form. Granted he’s young, but I’m getting Fuscovics vibes. He just looks big and strong, but wilts later on.
I’ll go with Medvedev for his craftiness. I’ll look to a newly reformed Medvedev beating Michelson after Tiafoe and facing Alcaraz in the semi-finals.
I couldn’t be more blown away at the level displayed by Michelson and Tiafoe. I totally was not expecting to see that, but I was forced to witness it, against my will.
They have exceeded expectations; although maybe that was part of the advantage: less hype, less pressure, particularly for Michelsen, who could just do his thing without that extra weight on his shoulders. Excellent stuff from the home players. I hope Tiafoe finishes this with Set 3!
Very humbling for me, for sure. Sometime at the end of the 1st set Medvedev lost his focus, and got irritated, just as you said, and then after that, it was all downhill.
Oh, it’s just tennis, and these guys all train fulltime so I wouldn’t worry about a wrong prediction. And I’m going to make a bold one: I’m convinced Tsitsipas will beat Shelton today, just from seeing them play here — I’m not even a Tsitsipas fan but he’s looking so much better after getting his father out of his box. It needs to stay that way…
Haha, I know, it’s a big racket sometimes. I can even see when players are friends, and don’t completely bagel an opponent, on the big stage, to boost their confidence. Tennis is lucrative enough now they can just pick and choose their battles.
Well, look what happened to my bold prediction!😂
Didn’t Shelton play great this evening! The first couple of matches by him were like Zverev’s; I was thinking, “These aren’t looking like their ranking!”
Now it’s my turn to grudgingly admit they might be competitive at the pointy end after all. I still think Shelton needs to work on his return game and is relying on his serve excessively, and that Zverev needs some meditation or maybe a shot of adrenaline in his behind at the right time.
I honestly don’t know; depends which version of Medvedev shows up. But I think Michelsen is more likely of the two Americans to advance here. Tiafoe is playing super well though and Meddy is easily frustrated.
Tiafoe in 5, Michelsen in 3
Michelsen looks SOOOOOO good!
Tiafoe reverses the Medvedev trend….wins in 4; Mson in 4
good picks
I wish I could watch all four ATP singles matches today but they’re all after pumpkin hour here, although Shelton-Tsitsipas is after breakfast so I will catch that one. To those of you getting them in the daytime, enjoy.
Etchverry has the bigger serve?
Big cheer here for Tiafoe’s straight sets win. I caught the tail end and he just looked electric! He properly won this one, Meddy didn’t lose it by getting discombobulated. Fantastic level from Tiafoe. I could see him beating Zverev with that level and energy but unfortunately he’s in Alcaraz’ half.
I’m not really into outfits but I think those colours look excellent on him.