First of all, the U.S. Open mixed doubles tournament will probably be a bit of a crapshoot. Such is the format of the newly revamped competition. From the first round through the semifinals, matches will be best-of-three sets with short sets (tiebreakers at 4-4), no-ad scoring, and a 10-point tiebreaker for the third. The final will be best-of-three sets (full sets, tiebreakers at 6-6) with no-ad scoring and a 10-point tiebreaker for the third.
Ben Shelton and Taylor Townsend are the odds-on favorites, followed by Jannik Sinner and Katerina Siniakova. Jack Draper and Jessica Pegula, the top seeds, are not too far behind.
Here are my best bets for the event, which takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday at Flushing Meadows.
U.S. Open mixed doubles title pick: Ben Shelton and Taylor Townsend +550
Shelton and Townsend are quite simply the best team in the field of 16. Obviously the best team doesn’t always win in tennis–especially not in this format. Still, there is a lot to like about Shelton and Townsend. Shelton played plenty of doubles in college at Florida and he has been dominant in doubles for Team World at the Laver Cup in recent years. Townsend is the WTA’s No. 1 doubles player in the world. Shelton and Townsend have played together before; they reached the U.S. Open mixed doubles semifinals in 2023 before losing to the top-seeded pairing of Pegula and Austin Krajicek in a tiebreaker for the third set. The only bad news heading into this tournament is that Shelton and Townsend could face Sinner and Siniakova as early as the quarterfinals. That is a tough draw.
U.S. Open mixed doubles longshot pick: Lorenzo Musetti and Caty McNally +1800
With Shelton-Townsend, Sinner-Siniakova, Andrea Vavassori-Sara Errani, and Taylor Fritz-Elena Rybakina all in the bottom half of the draw, the top half is much more open. There are big opportunities for almost everyone on that side of the bracket, and the Musetti-McNally duo has the best chance to take advantage. Musetti just finished runner-up in doubles at the Cincinnati Masters with fellow Italian Lorenzo Sonego. In women’s dubs, McNally is a two-time U.S. Open finalist and two-time Australian Open quarterfinalist. They have a very favorable path to the title starting with Gael Monfils and Naomi Osaka in the first round.
who ya got?