The Tulane Green Wave will hit the road for Oxford, Mississippi to play the Ole Miss Rebels for the second time this season, but this time in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The only difference is Lane Kiffin won’t be around to coach Ole Miss. Kickoff is set for Saturday at 3:30 pm ET on TNT.
Here are my favorite bets for this first-round matchup.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels odds
Money line: Tulane +1100 / Ole Miss -2500
Spread: Tulane +17.5 (-118) / Ole Miss -17.5 (-104)
Total: Over 56.5 (-112) / Under 56.5 (-108)
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels best bet #1: Ole Miss -17.5 (-104)
Tulane earned a seat at the CFP table with a statement win over North Texas in the AAC Championship. Not to take anything away from the Green Wave, but they were a bit fortunate throughout that game. Multiple passes bounced off UNT receivers’ hands into Tulane defenders’ hands, and the Mean Green even botched an interception that fell into the hands of a Tulane receiver for a first down. Needless to say, Ole Miss is unlikely to turn the ball over five times at home against this Tulane defense.
Tulane’s defensive metrics aren’t stellar by any means. The Green Wave are 67th in PPA per play, 101st in success rate, and 89th in points allowed per quality drive since Week 9 — and Ole Miss can absolutely take advantage of that. It boasts an offense that was 14th, 52nd, and 21st in those metrics, respectively — against better competition, too. After all, the Rebels already showcased the talent gap in this matchup once when they beat the Green Wave 45-10 and outgained them 548 to 282. Why would that change now with Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall having one foot out the door and Ole Miss looking to prove its success was due to more than just Kiffin. At -17.5, it’s a tougher pill to swallow than -16.5 or -17 — but it’s Ole Miss or nothing here.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Ole Miss Rebels best bet #2: Trinidad Chambliss Over 272.5 passing yards (-114)
Tulane’s secondary is the weakness of its defense and is why I liked North Texas so much in the AAC title game. Obviously that didn’t pan out, but the same handicap applies here. The Green Wave are 98th in PPA per pass and 108th on passing downs PPA since the end of October, which is part of the reason why they are outside the top 75 in third-down conversion rate allowed this season. QB Trinidad Chambliss should be able to lead the Rebels up and down the field against this defense yet again after throwing for 307 yards on just 27 attempts back in September — in what was just his second start at the FBS level.
The expected blowout nature is definitely a concern here, but Chambliss has shown to be an incredible down-field threat. He sits top 20 in big-time throw rate and yards per attempt, sixth nationally in PFF passer rating on throws of at least 20 yards and fifth in adjusted completion percentage on those deep passes. Not to mention Ole Miss has three top-15 receivers when it comes to yards after catch per reception. Considering Tulane is 128th in allowing passes of at least 20 yards, I don’t see how the Green Wave can stop Chambliss.
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