Toronto SF preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Paul

There will be no Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner showdown at the National Bank Open.

It looked like it would happen given how open the draw had become for both players, but only Sinner managed to take care of business on Friday night. Prior to the Italian’s 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 victory over Jannik Sinner, Alcaraz was was upset by Tommy Paul 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.

Thus it will be Sinner vs. Paul on Saturday–and the stakes could not be much higher for two players ranked eighth and 14th, respectively. Paul had never advanced to a semifinal at this level prior to arriving in Toronto, while Sinner has never won a Masters 1000 title (two-time Miami runner-up) and has triumphed at an ATP 500 only once (Washington, D.C. in 2021).

The head-to-head series stands at 1-1 and both matches delivered the goods; Sinner scored a 6-7(4), 7-6(4), 6-3 victory at the 2022 Madrid Masters before Paul prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 a couple of months later in Eastbourne.

Their first hard-court showdown should be a good one. Sinner has been one of the best players on tour this season (39-11 record); Paul was an Australian Open semifinalist and his quarterfinal performance against Alcaraz indicates that his level has not fallen off in the slightest. The 24-year-old American crushed in-form compatriot Marcos Giron 6-3, 6-2 in the previous round, too.

Paul has a real chance in this one, but Sinner wields more firepower and is one of the only players on tour–certainly the only one remaining in this event–who can hit through these relatively slow conditions with heavy balls. In the end, Sinner’s offense will likely get the best of Paul’s defense.

Pick: Sinner in 3