Toronto R4 previews and predictions: Michelsen vs. Tien, Ruud vs. Khachanov

There will be at least one surprising quarterfinalist at the Toronto Masters 1000 after Alex Michelsen and Learner Tien collide on Saturday. Capser Ruud and Karen Khachanov are also in fourth-round action.

(26) Alex Michelsen vs. Learner Tien

It will be a showdown between good friends and on-the-rise California kids when Michelsen and Tien battle for a place in the National Bank Open quarterfinals on Saturday. They have squared off on two previous occasions and split those first two contests at one win apiece; Tien prevailed 2-4, 4-2, 1-4, 4-0, 4-1 at the 2024 NextGen ATP Finals before Michelsen cruised 6-4, 6-2 this spring on the red clay of Houston.

Tien had basically no clay-court experience at the time and he is playing much better now, so that Houston result can pretty much be thrown out the window. The 19-year-old lefty predictably slumped a bit on clay and grass, but he has restored confidence on hard courts with a third-round effort in Washington, D.C. (d. Andrey Rublev) and Toronto victories over Denis Shapovalov and Reilly Opelka. Michelsen is coming off back-to-back tough matches against Tomas Barrios Vera and Lorenzo Musetti. On his preferred hard-court surface, Tien may be too solid from the back of course for his fellow American.

Pick: Tien in 3

(11) Karen Khachanov vs. (8) Casper Ruud

Ruud and Khachanov have also faced each other just twice before and this is a rematch of the 2022 U.S. Open semifinals, won by Ruud 7-6(5), 6-2, 5-7, 6-2. The 13th-ranked Norwegian also defeated Khachanov 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 at the 2021 Rome Masters. However, he could be vulnerable to a turning of the tide. Ruud is struggling outside the top 10, has dealt with a knee injury since Roland Garros, and hasn’t defeated anyone ranked better than 30th since his triumph at the Madrid Masters.

Khachanov has played well at this Canada Masters event, with two semifinal showings. The 16th-ranked Russian is back in the last 16 following victories over Juan Pablo Ficovich and Emilio Nava, while Ruud has advanced by ousting Roman Safiullin and Nuno Borges. Khachanov has reached at least the quarterfinals of three consecutive tournaments, so he is the more in form of these two players and–possibly unlike Ruud–is 100 percent from a physical standpoint.

Pick: Khachanov in 2