Toronto QF previews and predictions: Alcaraz vs. Paul, Sinner vs. Monfils

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are on a collision course for the Toronto semifinals, but they remain one round away from that blockbuster matchup. Tommy Paul and Gael Monfils, respectively, stand in their way on Friday.

(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (12) Tommy Paul

Alcaraz has been far from his best so far at the National Bank Open, but nonetheless he finds himself in the quarterfinals on Friday night. In victories over Ben Shelton and Hubert Hurkacz, three of the four sets won by the top-ranked Spaniard required tiebreakers and he was down a set and a break against Hurkacz before surviving in a third-set tiebreaker on Thursday night.

Alcaraz’s reward is a third career contest against Paul on Friday, with the head-to-head series tied at 1-1. Paul prevailed 6-7(4), 7-6(7), 6-3 at this same tournament last summer; Alcaraz cruised 6-4, 6-4 earlier this season in Miami. The 14th-ranked American has looked good in Toronto while taking out Francisco Cerundolo and Marcos Giron, but he really hasn’t done much since making a run to the Australian Open semis. At some point you have to think Alcaraz will raise his level–and that will likely be now.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2

(PR) Gael Monfils vs. (7) Jannik Sinner

Andy Murray was probably the biggest roadblock in the way of an Alcaraz-Sinner semifinal, but the 36-year-old Scot withdrew prior to facing Sinner on Thursday night because of an abdominal injury. With that Sinner is into the quarterfinals having played only one match (a 6-4, 6-3 defeat of Matteo Berrettini), as he also earned a first-round bye as the No. 7 seed.

Up next for the 21-year-old Italian is Monfils, who trails the head-to-head series 3-1. They most recently faced each other twice in 2021, when Sinner got the job done 7-6(1), 6-2, 4-6, 4-6, 6-4 at the U.S. Open and 6-3, 6-4 in the Sofia final. In suddenly resurgent form following more injury problems, Monfils has advanced in Toronto by beating Chris Eubanks, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Aleksandar Vukic. Although the 36-year-old Frenchman is obviously dangerous any time he takes the court (but also a question mark any time, too), Sinner is playing awesome tennis and obviously has a huge edge in the physicality department.

Pick: Sinner in 2