Toronto QF previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. De Minaur, Davidovich Fokina vs. McDonald

There will be at least one unseeded semifinalist in Toronto, as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is going up against Mackenzie McDonald on Friday. Quarterfinal competition also includes Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex de Minaur.

Alex de Minaur vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev is a former champion of the National Bank Open (2021) and he is looking every bit like a future champion of this event, too. A second title in Canada may even come this week. The world No. 3 is without question a hard-court specialist and this time of the year has always been his favorite. He is playing like it so far in Toronto, with straight-set victories over Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Musetti.

Up next for Medvedev in Friday’s quarterfinals is De Minaur, for whom this is a nightmare matchup. The 24-year-old Australian is a counter-puncher just like his opponent except that he has much less firepower. It’s no surprise that De Minaur trails the head-to-head series 4-1, and it will likely be 5-1 by the end of the day. The world No. 18 is playing well, but he just reached the Los Cabos final last week and has already played three matches in Toronto–including a tough three-setter against Taylor Fritz on Thursday. Medvedev is more rested and is simply the better all-around player.

Pick: Medvedev in 2

WWW: Medvedev vs. De Minaur?


Mackenzie McDonald vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Davidovich Fokina and McDonald will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Friday. Their only previous encounter came two years ago on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm, where Davidovich Fokina got the job done 6-2, 3-6, 7-5. Another good one should be in the cards based on their form in Toronto. Davidovich Fokina completely destroyed J.J. Wolf (6-0, 6-2) and Alexander Zverev (6-1, 6-2) before outlasting Casper Ruud 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(4). McDonald did not drop a set and did not even get pushed to a tiebreaker in wins over Aslan Karatsev, Andrey Rublev, and Milos Raonic.

Mackenzie McDonald


As well as McDonald is playing this week, he has been far less consistent than Davidovich Fokina in 2023 and it has to be said that Rublev and Raonic were totally out of sorts in rounds two and three, respectively. Although Davidovich Fokina spent three hours and five minutes on the court against Ruud, his first two matches were lightning quick so he should have enough left in the tank for this one. If he maintains his current level, the 37th-ranked Spaniard may have a little bit too much firepower for the American.

Pick: Davidovich Fokina in 3

WWW: Davidovich Fokina vs. McDonald?

7 Comments on Toronto QF previews and predictions: Medvedev vs. De Minaur, Davidovich Fokina vs. McDonald

  1. What matters is how they are playing comparatively right now, not who has the better historical performance; such is the competitiveness of the ATP tour.

    • “Medvedev is more rested and is simply the better all-around player.”

      This implies his prediction is based on his record.

  2. Not a bad way to predict a current world no 1 or 2. To state the blindingly obvious it’s their recent record that counts.

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