Toronto final preview and prediction: Sinner vs. De Minaur

It’s safe to say that Alex de Minaur was rooting for Tommy Paul against Jannik Sinner in the second semifinal at the National Bank Open on Saturday night.

After all, De Minaur is 5-0 lifetime against Paul and 0-4 in his career against Sinner. That 0-4 mark in the head-to-head series with Sinner includes 1-10 hopelessness in total sets.

Unfortunately for De Minaur, Saturday’s nightcap did not go Paul’s way–not even close–so it will be Sinner on the other side of the net from the Australian in the Toronto championship match on Sunday afternoon. The Italian cruised past Paul 6-4, 6-4, a result that was preceded by De Minaur’s 6-1, 6-3 beatdown of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Sinner is through to his third Masters 1000 final, having twice finished runner-up in Miami (first in 2021 and again this season). The world No. 8 had no trouble advancing this far in Toronto, where he got a first-round bye and a walkover from Andy Murray in addition to beating Paul, Matteo Berrettini, and Gael Monfils while dropping just one set to Monfils along the way.

De Minaur has been similarly dominant this week, beating Davidovich Fokina, Cameron Norrie, Gabriel Diallo, Taylor Fritz, and Daniil Medvedev with the loss of only one set to Fritz.

Still, the 18th-ranked Aussie may not be entirely fresh because he also reached the Los Cabos final last week (lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas). That’s a lot of tennis in the span of two weeks for anyone–especially for someone like De Minaur who relies on running all over the place to achieve success. He will certainly be doing that against Sinner, who is a much more offensive player.

Sinner has the firepower to hit through these relatively slow conditions in Toronto, whereas De Minaur does not. Offense has always defeated defense in this particular head-to-head matchup and it will like do so for a fifth straight time on Sunday.

Pick: Sinner in 2