A way-too-early showdown between Frances Tiafoe and Arthur Fils is taking place at the Tokyo ATP 500 on Friday. Valentin Vacherot and Stefanos Tsitsipas are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.
(Q) Arthur Fils vs. (2) Frances Tiafoe
Especially on the heels of so much carnage in the Japan Open draw, Fils vs. Tiafoe would be worthy of the final. Taylor Fritz, Rafael Jodar, Brandon Nakashima, Casper Ruud, Tommy Paul, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Holger Rune, and Lorenzo Musetti (withdrew) are already out. Fils has made it farther than those guys even though he missed the entry deadline and had to play in qualifying, successfully earning a place in the main draw with wins over Martin Damm and Kamil Majchrzak. The world No. 9 proceeded to defeat Luca Van Assche 6-3, 6-2 on Wednesday.
Friday marks the third meeting between Tiafoe and Fils. The Frenchman has won both of their previous encounters — 7-6(11), 5-7, 6-2 at the 2025 Miami Masters and 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 in the Cincinnati final this summer. Tiafoe, however, may be poised for revenge. The eighth-ranked American followed up his Cincinnati performance with a semifinal run at the U.S. Open and continued his fine form with a 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Kei Nishikori on Thursday. Fils has already played eight sets this week, whereas Tiafoe is well rested and has the revenge factor on his mind following his Cincinnati setback.
Pick: Tiafoe in 3
(8) Valentin Vacherot vs. (Q) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas also had to go through Tokyo qualifying, although that was because his ranking was too low as opposed to missing a sign-up deadline. The 44th-ranked Greek had no trouble playing his way into the field of 32, disposing of Yoshihito Nishioka and Rinky Hijikata in straight sets. Tsitsipas is now 8-1 in his last nine matches dating back to the U.S. Open after beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 on Thursday.
Up next for Tsitsipas on Friday is a first-ever contest against Vacherot, who is no stranger to success on the Asian swing. The 27-year-old Monegasque’s breakthrough on tour came last fall in the form of a shocking run to the Shanghai Masters title, featuring victories over Rune, Alexander Bublik, and Novak Djokovic en route. Injuries have held the world No. 18 back a bit in 2026, however. Even though Vacherot did well to defeat Alexander Blockx 7-6(2), 7-6(4) in round one, Tsitsipas is the one with more momentum in this matchup.
Pick: Tsitsipas in 3
WWW?
Fils wins again
Congratulations to me. I voted Vacherot in 3. And thought Michelsen might take a set off Alcaraz.
Now I’m due to be incorrect for my next dozen predictions.