Carlos Alcaraz and Valentin Vacherot are the only seeds remaining in Tokyo heading into the quarterfinals on Sunday, although Arthur Fils should technically be seeded. It’s Alcaraz vs. Denis Shapovalov and Fils vs. Vacherot.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. Denis Shapovalov
Alcaraz trailed Matteo Arnaldi 6-2 in the first-set tiebreaker of their Japan Open second-round match on Saturday, but the top-seeded Spaniard stormed back for a 7-6(6), 6-1 victory. That was preceded by a 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1 defeat of Alex Michelsen, so it is safe to say that Alcaraz has been tested in the early stages of his Tokyo title defense.
Up next for the world No. 3 on quarterfinal Sunday is a third meeting with Shapovalov, who has lost both of their previous contests. Alcaraz rolled 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 at the 2023 French Open and 6-2, 6-4 at the 2025 Indian Wells Masters. There is no reason to think anything will be different this time around. Alcaraz is 7-1 since returning from his four-month injury layoff and Shapovalov has not beaten a top-five opponent since the 2025 Dallas Open (Casper Ruud). The Canadian lefty did well to oust Sho Shimabukuro and Alejandro Tabilo earlier this week, but this is almost certainly where his run ends.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
(8) Valentin Vacherot vs. (Q) Arthur Fils
Fils and Vacherot will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Sunday. They previously faced each other this spring at the Miami Masters, where Fils prevailed 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4. Don’t be fooled by the fact that the Frenchman is a qualifier; he heads into the rematch as a big favorite, and for good reason. Fils is 13-2 in his last 15 matches with Tokyo wins over Martin Damm, Kamil Majchrzak, Luca Van Assche, and Frances Tiafoe. The first two came in qualifying after the world No. 9 missed the main-draw entry deadline.
Vacherot snagged the eighth and final seed thanks to Fils’ gaffe, but that still didn’t give the 18th-ranked Monegasque an easy draw. He opened with a 7-6(2), 7-6(4) defeat of Alexander Blockx and then battled past Stefanos Tsitsipas 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 on Friday. Vacherot is playing well, but Fils is on a different level right now and should be able to deal with the 27-year-old’s firepower on a surface that — although not slow — is by no means lightning fast.
Pick: Fils in 2
WWW?
Fils wasnt another level after all. Makes sense: Tsitsipas beat Fils and Vacherot beat Tsitsipas.
I’m starting to think Fils runs hot and cold. It didn’t surprise me Vacherot won because he’s a quality player and usually consistent. He just doesn’t have the Fils stardust but some of that is age and expectation. Well done Vacherot, getting past Tsitsipas who’s playing respectably ATM and also past Fils. Blockx isn’t a bad player either.