The remaining quarterfinal spots in Tokyo will be handed out on Saturday, when Carlos Alcaraz continues his title defense against Matteo Arnaldi. An all-unseeded second-round showdown features Jiri Lehecka and Ugo Humbert.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Alcaraz’s comeback to tennis following a four-month layoff due to a knee injury has been impressive so far. The third-ranked Spaniard came up short at the U.S. Open, but reaching the quarterfinals and playing a five-set marathon against Ben Shelton under those circumstances is not a bad result. Alcaraz then compiled a 2-0 record at the Laver Cup and kicked off his Japan Open campaign with a 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1 victory over Alex Michelsen on Thursday.
Up next for the top seed and defending champion on Saturday is a third meeting with Arnaldi, who had lost both of their previous contests. Alcaraz coasted in straight sets at the 2023 U.S. Open and recovered from a slow start to dominate 6-7(5), 6-0, 6-1 at the 2024 Indian Wells Masters. There is no reason to think that Arnaldi is suddenly going to turn the tide, as he was 2-7 in his last nine matches before beating Rei Sakamoto 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 on Wednesday. It doesn’t help the 37th-ranked Italian that Alcaraz should only be getting better and better as he gets more and more matches under his belt.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
Ugo Humbert vs. Jiri Lehecka
Lehecka and Humbert will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Saturday. Their only previous encounter came last season in Dubai, where Humbert cruised 6-3, 6-0. Based on 2026 form, however, it could be a much different story in Tokyo.
Lehecka is 30-17 this season and 3-0 on the fall swing, with straight-set wins in Davis Cup over Shelton and Learner Tien of Team USA followed by a 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-3 defeat of Zizou Bergs on Wednesday. Humbert had been 1-5 in his last six matches before destroying a worn-out Brandon Nakashima 6-3, 6-2 in the first round. That is a good result for the 32nd-ranked Frenchman, but he has not won back-to-back matches since Eastbourne in June on his beloved grass. Lehecka should win this one going away.
Pick: Lehecka in 2
WWW?
only two seeds left in the entire draw
One of those just might win this thing!
The other gets Fils next, tough gig.