Tokyo SF previews and predictions: Shelton vs. Giron, Karatsev vs. Mochizuki

A surprising semifinal lineup in Tokyo includes an all-American showdown between Ben Shelton and Marcos Giron on Saturday. Aslan Karatsev and Japan’s own Shinato Mochizuki are also taking the court.

Ben Shelton vs. (Q) Marcos Giron

Shelton is no stranger to facing fellow Americans and he will meet another one during semifinal action at the Japan Open on Saturday afternoon. The 21-year-old’s run to the U.S. Open semifinals included victories over Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe and he was ousted from the Shanghai quarterfinals by Sebastian Korda in a third-set tiebreaker. Shelton beat Paul again in the Tokyo quarters (7-6(4), 6-3) to set up this meeting with Giron. The world No. 19 preceded Friday’s result by battling past both Taro Daniel and Jordan Thompson in three sets.

Like Shelton, Giron is also playing by far the best tennis of his life right now. The 30-year-old has won 24 main-tour matches in 2023, including victories this week over Yoshihito Nishioka, Casper Ruud, and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Giron won his only previous encounter with Shelton early this season in Delray Beach via a 6-4, 6-4 decision. Although the former UCLA standout has continued to play well, Shelton is an entirely different player from what he was just eight months ago. On these quick hard courts, the former University of Florida will likely remain on an absolute roll.

Pick: Shelton in 2

(WC) Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Aslan Karatsev

With Kei Nishikori’s career presumably winding down, Japanese tennis fans are searching for another ATP star and it could come in the form of Mochizuki. The 20-year-old won the 2019 junior Wimbledon title at 16, but professional development has been slow going. Nothing could have forecasted this run in front of the home crowd in Tokyo, but against all odds Mochizuki secured a semifinal spot by defeating Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Taylor Fritz, and Alexei Popyrin.

Up next for the world No. 215 is a first-ever meeting with Karatsev, who has been on fire this week. The 50th-ranked Russian has not dropped a single set while taking out Frances Tiafoe, Zhizhen Zhang, and Alex de Minaur. Mochizuki, by contrast, went to a second-set tiebreaker with Etcheverry, outlasted Fritz in a third-set tiebreaker, and was pushed to 7-5 in the third set by Popyrin. When Karatsev is hot–as he is right now–he is tough to beat, and Mochizuki has to be feeling the effects of this week both mentally and physically.

Pick: Karatsev in 2