Tokyo R1 previews and predictions: Fritz vs. Norrie, De Minaur vs. Draper

First-round action at the ATP 500 in Tokyo continues on Tuesday, when seeds Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur take the court. Fritz kicks off his campaign against Cameron Norrie, while De Minaur faces Jack Draper.

(1) Taylor Fritz vs. Cameron Norrie

It’s not often that a player ranked 18th in the world is unseeded at any tournament, but that is the case with Norrie at the Japan Open. The result is a rough draw in the form of a first-round showdown with Fritz, the No. 1 seed, on Tuesday. They have already faced each other a whopping 12 times and the head-to-head series is all tied up at six wins apiece. Dating back to the start of 2022, their last four meetings have all come in different team competitions (ATP Cup, Davis Cup, Laver Cup, United Cup) and they have split those at 2-2.

Overall, however, this season has been a great one for Fritz and a struggle for Norrie. Fritz is has won 51 matches and comes in at No. 10 in the world; he is ninth in the race to Turin, fewer than 200 points behind Holger Rune for the eighth and final spot. Norrie is 35-22 in 2023, having fallen off a cliff after compiling a 21-3 in his first 24 matches. Fritz is in far superior form and should be motivated by Nitto ATP Finals contention, so count on the American getting the job done.

Pick: Fritz in 2

(4) Alex de Minaur vs. (Q) Jack Draper

De Minaur and Draper will be squaring off for the second time in their careers on Tuesday. Their only previous encounter came last summer at Wimbledon, where De Minaur prevailed 5-7, 7-6(0), 6-2, 6-3. Although the 24-year-old Australian is a considerable favorite based on ranking (13th to 88th), this will likely be another entertaining and competitive contest.

Physical problems have been the only red flag for Draper in the early stages of his career. When healthy, the 21-year-old Brit is without question a top-30 kind of player and a future top-10 prospect. Recent form is encouraging, as he reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open, advanced to a Challenger final earlier this month, and qualified for the Tokyo main draw with two commanding victories. Meanwhile, De Minaur is coming off back-to-back second-round losses on the Asian swing in Beijing (to Daniil Medvedev) and Shanghai (to Fabian Marozsan). With two matches already under his belt in Tokyo, this is a great opportunity for Draper to pull off a minor upset.

Pick: Draper in 3