Semifinal spots will be handed out in Tokyo on Friday, when qualifier Marcos Giron looks to continue his run against No. 8 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime. No. 4 seed Alex de Minaur and Aslan Karatsev are also taking the court.
(4) Alex de Minaur vs. Aslan Karatsev
De Minaur and Karatsev will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Japan Open on Friday. They have split their two previous encounters; De Minaur prevailed 6-4, 7-6(5) on the indoor hard courts of Sofia in 2020 before Karatsev scored a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 victory this spring at the Madrid Masters.
It has a been a mediocre year overall for Karatsev, but the world No. 50 is starting to come alive with a third-round effort at the U.S. Open and a semifinal showing in Zhuhai. Now he finds himself in the Tokyo quarters following straight-set defeats of Frances Tiafoe and Zhizhen Zhang. De Minaur almost exited right away, but he outlasted Jack Draper in a third-set tiebreaker and then cruised past Diego Schwartzman 6-0, 7-5 on Thursday. The 13th-ranked Aussie’s loss to Karatsev was on his worst surface (clay) and his defensive skills will likely be too much for the Russian in this setting.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
(8) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (Q) Marcos Giron
Advancing to the quarterfinals of an ATP 500 event generally isn’t anything of note for Auger-Aliassime, but at this point it is an impressive result. Outside of the Laver Cup, the 17th-ranked Canadian had not won a match since Cincinnati and he had not won multiple matches in a tournament since Indian Wells. Auger-Aliassime can only hope his fortunes are turning around with Tokyo victories over Aleksandar Vukic and Sebastian Ofner.
Up next for the 23-year-old on Friday is a fourth meeting with Giron, who remains winless in this matchup. The 30-year-old American has lost twice on grass (Halle in both 2021 and 2022) and once on clay (2022 Rome Masters). Of course, those results can pretty much be thrown out the window given the surface change and Auger-Aliassime’s ice-cold form. Giron, on the other hand, is wrapping up the best season of his career. The world No. 79 has won 23 main-tour matches, including two this week over Yoshihito Nishioka and second-seeded Casper Ruud. Playing on his favorite surface and facing a struggling opponent, this is a great opportunity for Giron.
Pick: Giron in 3
who ya got?
Giron in 3
Karastev in 3