Tokyo QF previews and picks: Nishikori vs. Cilic, Paire vs. Kyrgios

Cilic winsKei Nishikori and Marin Cilic will be squaring off in a blockbuster Tokyo quarterfinal on Friday. Another extremely intriguing affair pits Benoit Paire against Nick Kyrgios.

(6) Marin Cilic vs. (2) Kei Nishikori

One of the fast-emerging rivalries on the ATP Tour will resume when Nishikori and Cilic clash in the Rakuten Japan Open quarterfinals on Friday. They have faced each other nine times, including a stretch of five consecutive meetings in the quarterfinals or later. An improbable 2014 U.S. Open title match saw Cilic triumph 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, but the Croat trails the overall head-to-head series 6-3. Their most recent showdown came this summer in the Washington, D.C. semifinals, with Nishikori getting the job done 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.

The two competitors have taken similar paths through the Tokyo draw. Nishikori overcame Borna Coric 2-6, 6-1, 6-2 before scoring a more routine 7-6(3), 6-3 victory over Sam Querrey. The fan favorite is an awesome 50-11 for the season and 14-1 in his last 15 matches at his home tournament. Cilic held off Donald Young 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 then hammered another American, Steve Johnson, 6-3, 6-3 on Thursday. The world No. 14 is 27-15 for the year after recently advancing to the U.S. Open semifinals. Nishikori’s down-the-line backhand should eventually get the best of Cilic’s forehand and home-court advantage could also be a factor in what is almost certain to be a competitive contest.

Pick: Nishikori in 3

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Benoit Paire vs. Nick Kyrgios

Paire and Kyrgios will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Friday. Their only previous collision did not disappoint; in round two of the 2014 Australian Open, Paire stormed back from two sets down to prevail 6-7(5), 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-2, 6-4. Grand Slam success has not come too frequently for the 32nd-ranked Frenchman, but his career may have turned a corner this summer at the U.S. Open. Paire won another five-setter after saving two match points against Nishikori in the first round and ended up reaching the last 16. So far in Tokyo he has taken out both Grigor Dimitrov and Marcos Baghdatis in three sets.

Kyrgios has seemingly gotten himself together after what was a borderline disastrous summer in a variety of ways. The 20-year-old Australian is bidding for a second semifinal in as many weeks, having advanced to that stage in Kuala Lumpur (lost to Feliciano Lopez in two tiebreakers). He booked his spot in the Tokyo last eight by catching fire following a rough opening set to the tournament. Kyrgios beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-3 then clobbered Roberto Bautista Agut 6-4, 6-2. The winner of this match is expected to climb to No. 29 in the world, thus almost guaranteeing 2016 Australian Open seeding. It could go either way but Kyrgios has been outstanding in his last four sets and his solid play off both weeks may stand the test of pressure moments, whereas Paire’s forehand is prone to break down.

Pick: Kyrgios in 3

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23 Comments on Tokyo QF previews and picks: Nishikori vs. Cilic, Paire vs. Kyrgios

  1. Exactly what I was thinking about how Paire’s forehand breaks down easier so nick should have the advantage. And same pick with nishikori except I’m thinking two tight sets for some reason I just feel like kei will deliver great performance with home crowd behind him and steady improvement as the tournament progresses. Cilic was sharp against Johnson though so three sets wouldn’t be surprising either.

  2. Who else is loving how muller’s playing? He is such a boss when he’s on and his game is just great. I hope he or Stan wins the tournament to be honest. That would be awesome semifinal.

  3. Muller almost couldn’t close it out but played his game even under pressure and stuck to his guns and it paid off. He really just played so automatic. Simon was obviously annoyed lol. I’m probably gonna be mostly neutral if Stan plays muller. If not I’ll be like 51 or 52% for Stan just cuz he’s probably my second favorite behind roger and Gilles is one of my favorites too. No matter who wins I’ll be happy but I feel like stan’s interest level at lower events may cause him to lose. Then again being in the semis he will probably be motivated to win the tournament by then. It’ll be interesting to see if krajicek can challenge him with his serve and power. Problem is Stan has power and the big serve only his game is obviously even bigger. If Stan plays badly who knows though. Still picking Stan to win this one in three.

  4. Hilarious match between Paire and Curious. I still can’t stand Kyrgios and his stupid antics but I have to admit he was a lot less objectionable today. Maybe the meltdown and subsequent probationary period is having the desired effect. He pretty much hoisted the white flag in the third set.

  5. Curious seemed to be lording it over Paire so I’m very surprised at the outcome. I’m pleased though. I support anyone against Curious.

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