Tokyo final preview and prediction: Shelton vs. Karatsev

Ben Shelton is playing in his first ATP final. Aslan Karatsev is bidding for his first title since January of 2022. The stakes are high–especially at a 500-point tournament–for what will be the second head-to-head meeting between these two unseeded players at the Japan Open on Sunday.

It has been a wild week for Shelton, who got the best of Karatsev 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 6-0 in the third round of this summer’s U.S. Open. The 21-year-old needed a third-set tiebreaker to get past Taro Daniel in the Tokyo first round and he also went to three sets with Jordan Thompson. After beating Tommy Paul 7-6(4), 6-3, Shelton came back from a set and 5-2, double-break down in the second to defeat Marcos Giron 6-7(2), 7-6(5), 6-4 in the semis.

“It’s a huge achievement for me and my team, especially (with) the way the match panned out,” the world No. 19 said. “(It was) definitely one of the toughest matches I’ve played in my life. Marcos was waxing me from the baseline in almost every rally and I had to completely change my game to even have a chance against him. To be able to get through that match, to not only figure some things out but get a win and be going into my first ATP final, the win couldn’t be sweeter.”

It was a much different run to the championship match for Karatsev. The 50th-ranked Russian did not drop a single set against Frances Tiafoe, Zhizhen Zhang, Alex de Minaur, or Shintaro Mochizuki. Although Karatsev’s 2023 campaign has largely been a disappointing, this result has not come entirely out of nowhere. After advancing two rounds at the U.S. Open he reached the semis in Zhuhai at the beginning of the Asian swing.

Karatsev has the fresher legs, but Shelton insists he will be good to go for Sunday.

“The legs are a little heavy today, but they’ll definitely be recovered by tomorrow,” the American said after outlasting Giron. “I’ll be ready to go. I think if nothing else, adrenaline will get me through the match.”

Karatsev has been the best player this week, but he hasn’t been battle tested. The 30-year-old has also played entirely offensive tennis in Tokyo–especially in the last two rounds against counter-punchers in De Minaur and Mochizuki. It will be a much different matchup against Shelton, who looks poised to capture his first ATP title.

Pick: Shelton in 3