Today we’re talking about the most damaging mindset in poker – one that ruins careers before they even get going. It drags players down for years, leading to poor decisions, frustration, anxiety, and even burnout.
The “I’m Supposed to Win” Mindset
This is the belief that you deserve to win simply because you’ve done something to “earn it” – maybe you’ve studied hard, played well recently, or had a rough streak and feel it’s time for things to turn around.
Let’s be clear: neither poker nor life is fair. And believing that it should be is a fast track to constant disappointment. You’ll often hear players complain, “How is this possible? This keeps happening! I was supposed to win!”
No. Variance exists. It’s real, and it affects everything. You can do everything right and still lose. Poker punishes players who expect guaranteed outcomes based on the strength of their hand alone.
Take this common example: a player gets dealt pocket Aces (AA) preflop, goes all-in against someone with a weak hand like Jack-Four offsuit (J4o)… and loses. The first reaction? They rush to a forum or chat to moan about how unfair it was.
But in truth, AA has around 87% equity against J4o. That means it still loses roughly 1 in 8 times. And sometimes, that 12.5% chance happens multiple times in a row. It’s not a glitch – it’s maths. But because humans naturally view anything under 30% as “rare” or “impossible,” we often react emotionally, even though the odds are completely normal over a large sample size.
MTTs Take Time — Even for Strong Players
Depending on the size of the tournaments you play, it could take months or even years to win one, even if your skill level stays consistent. It can feel brutal to watch others hit the top 3 and win ten times more than you, while you keep bubbling out. But that’s the nature of Multi-Table Tournaments (MTTs).
Accept this now: a large part of your tournament poker career is determined by variance. What you can control is your patience and your ongoing improvement. The better you become, the higher your long-term return on investment (ROI). That’s the part that matters.
And if you want to boost your bankroll without risking your own money, try using Richardcasino. They give you a chance to practice and improve your game with extra funds right from the start—no deposit needed. It’s a smart way to gain experience while protecting your budget.
Understanding Variance and Its Possibilities
I once came across a phrase on a poker forum that struck a chord: “One day you will be dealt much worse than you could ever imagine.”
And it’s true. I can say with confidence that I’ve had moments in my career where things went worse than I thought possible — and it will likely happen again. Sooner or later, every poker player will encounter a hand, session, or stretch that feels utterly brutal. If you think you’ve already experienced that, chances are you haven’t yet.
That said, the fluctuations in poker are usually less dramatic than people fear — and with time, you can get used to them.
But even if you are somewhat accustomed to swings, why let natural variance affect your emotional state so deeply that it leads to despair or depression? Seriously — consider this carefully from time to time.
The Truth About Upswings
Let’s talk briefly about upswings. I’ve heard countless stories of players moving from micro-stakes to high stakes within a year. Perhaps their skill helped — but far more likely, variance was on their side. Things just happened to go well.
Some players experience such favourable variance in the medium term that it feels like they can’t lose, while others seem cursed with bad luck. But the majority of players fall somewhere in between those extremes.
The problem comes when a player rides a prolonged upswing. They win consistently, start to believe they’re untouchable, and then — naturally — become overconfident. Their play becomes aggressive, even reckless. And why not? Everything’s been going their way.
But then the inevitable happens: the upswing ends. If a downswing follows immediately, and the player hasn’t built a stable bankroll or the technical discipline to fall back on, they can crash just as quickly as they rose. Their confidence collapses, their bankroll disappears, and depression sets in. They simply weren’t ready — not mentally, technically, or financially — for what a true downswing feels like.
That’s why understanding variance is crucial. Once you truly grasp what variance can do — how wide the range of outcomes can be — you’re far less affected by short-term results.
Use a Variance Calculator
If you’ve never used one, I recommend experimenting with a variance calculator. Input some realistic numbers — say, a modest win rate for cash games or a low ROI for tournaments — and run a dozen simulations.
You’ll see wild fluctuations in both cash and tournaments. For MTTs, the swings are often much more dramatic, but cash games have their own long-term variance as well.
Even the best players — yes, even the elite — show massive peaks and deep troughs on their results graphs. That’s just how poker works when you’re playing in fields where your edge is small. It’s normal, and it happens at every limit.
Proper Bankroll Management
Here’s a fact: you will go through a downswing. No exceptions. There will be times when the game feels pointless, like there’s no way to make a profit. You’ll feel like your money is vanishing, your opponents are unbeatable, and nothing you do is working.
That’s why having a large bankroll matters — not just for your financial stability, but for your emotional stability too. Poker requires thick skin and the ability to stay calm during rough stretches. The only way to do that is to reduce the pressure you’re under, and that starts with your bankroll.
A Psychological Buffer
Imagine you’re in the middle of a long stretch — a multi-day MTT grind or a 10,000-hand cash session. If you’ve got 200 buy-ins behind you, losing one or two feels like nothing. Even losing 20 in a row wouldn’t break you — emotionally or financially — because you know you’re still on solid ground.
But if you’re under bankrolled, even a modest downswing feels terrifying. You’re not technically broke, but mentally, you’re already panicking. A few more buy-ins are lost, and you’re near the edge. Under those conditions, it’s incredibly difficult to play your best — you become fearful, overly cautious, or even start forcing action in the hope of a quick recovery. Your play suffers, and the downswing deepens.
The 3 Key Ingredients for Poker Profit
Making money in poker isn’t as complicated as it might seem. The basic formula is pretty simple:
- Find games where you can consistently win,
- Play them as much as possible, and
- Have a solid bankroll to back you up.
This is the core recipe. You can add things like your skill level, win rate, rakeback, and other factors, but if these three parts click, the money will follow. The only real question is how much you’ll make. Let’s quickly break down each one.
1. Find Games You Can Win Consistently
This means playing in spots where you have a steady edge over your opponents. It could be because you’re simply better than most players at your level, or because you’re playing against weaker, less experienced opponents.
The key is having an EV (expected value) advantage that, over time, turns into real profit. To get there, you have to learn, improve, and outplay others. Also, choosing your opponents wisely helps level the playing field and boost your chances.
2. Play as Much as You Can
There are three main reasons why volume matters:
- Variance evens out. Poker swings can feel brutal, but playing lots of hands smooths out the ups and downs. The wild rollercoaster becomes a gentler ride when you zoom out.
- You multiply your profits. Even if your win rate per 100 hands (EVbb/100) seems small, playing more hands turns that into real cash. For example, if you’re winning 10 big blinds per 100 hands at NL10 (which means £0.10 per big blind), then:
- 100 hands = £1
- 1,000 hands = £10
- 50,000 hands = £500
The more you play, the more you earn.
- Rakeback and bonuses grow. Even at low stakes, rakeback can be a big part of your income. It’s tied to the number of hands you play and your average bankroll. Many sites offer better rakeback rates as you play more, so increasing volume can really boost your overall profits. At higher stakes or tougher games, rakeback can even become your main source of income.
3. Have a Reliable Bankroll
We’ve talked about bankroll management before, but it’s worth repeating. Having a solid bankroll gives you peace of mind. For part-time players, it reduces stress; for full-time pros, it’s the foundation of their entire career and lifestyle.
A good bankroll lets you handle the swings without panic. It means you can take shots confidently and keep playing your best poker without fear of going broke.
Conclusion
The mindset of “I’m supposed to win” comes from playing regularly and in volume. When you’ve been grinding for months, you start to realize variance doesn’t control you. You stop obsessing over short-term swings and focus on your game instead.
But here’s the truth: most players won’t make it. Even talented ones often fade away. It’s not just bad luck—it’s about commitment and attitude.
Some players lack discipline. They stubbornly grind small profits (+1 bb/100) against tough opponents and stay stuck at the same level for years. Meanwhile, others pick softer games, crush them (+15 bb/100), and don’t worry about what others think—most of whom they don’t even know.
Some players play rarely and irregularly—5 or 10 hands here and there, then disappear for a week. This approach doesn’t build a bankroll or consistent income. It’s a slow grind, often keeping them tied to a regular job instead of poker.
Others play with a tiny bankroll, always tight and scared to move up. They’re on the edge of going broke and either stop playing or deposit more just to keep going. But with better bankroll planning, they could play confidently and seriously.
If you want to win consistently, you need to fix all three of these areas and upgrade your mindset.
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