The last two weeks of the proverbial regular season are upon us, starting in Basel and Vienna and then wrapping up with the Paris Masters. Roger Federer is once again in action at one of his favorite tournaments, where he eyes a 10th title. Federer is joined in a strong Basel field by Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Nitto ATP Finals hopeful Roberto Bautista Agut. Among those in Vienna, meanwhile, are Dominic Thiem, Karen Khachanov, Matteo Berrettini, and Gael Monfils.
Swiss Indoors Basel
Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 2,082,655 Euros
Points: 500
Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Roger Federer
Draw analysis: The Swiss fans will not be overly enthused about the Basel draw, as Federer and Stan Wawrinka are on a collision course for the quarterfinals. One of the host nation’s top two players will be gone prior to the semis, and the winner of a potential Federer-Wawrinka collision could run into Tstisipas at that point. It is not an easy top half of the bracket, where Fabio Fognini—who has an outside shot at a London berth—may meet Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals.
That is not to say the other side is friendly. Zverev has a chance to lock up another trip to London for what would be his title defense, but he faces a potentially tough opener against Taylor Fritz before possibly battling an in-form Alex de Minaur. Bautista Agut’s section is relatively wide open, also being home to David Goffin, Marin Cilic, Reilly Opelka, and 2018 runner-up Marius Copil.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Marius Copil over (4) Roberto Bautista Agut. Copil trails the head-to-head series 2-0, but he cannot be discounted on an indoor hard court. In addition to the Romanian’s performance in Basel last season, he also reached the Sofia final. As for Bautista Agut, he may be wearing out down the stretch of 2019 while also feeling the pressure of qualifying for London.
[crowdsignal poll=10438208]
Hot: Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur, Marius Copil
Cold: Benoit Paire, Frances Tiafoe, Laslo Djere
Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over Stan Wawrinka, Stefanos Tsitsipas over Fabio Fognini, David Goffin over Roberto Bautista Agut, and Alexander Zverev over Jan-Lennard Struff
Semifinals: Federer over Tsitsipas and Zverev over Goffin
Final: Federer over Zverev
[polldaddy poll=10142527]
Erste Bank Open
Where: Vienna, Austria
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,296,490 Euros
Top seed: Dominic Thiem
2018 champion: Kevin Anderson (not playing)
Draw analysis: Like Basel, Vienna features a top seed and title favorite who hails from the host nation. Of course, that is just about where the similarities end. Unlike Federer, Thiem has struggled in front of the home crowd (8-8 lifetime record at this event) and thus this title looks to be completely up for grabs. The field is not exactly top heavy but it is extremely deep, as the unseeded contingent includes Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Fernando Verdasco, Pablo Carreno Busta, U.S. Open semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov, Moscow champion Andrey Rublev, and Stockholm champ Denis Shapovalov.
Thiem cannot waste any time getting in gear, as he opens with Tsonga before potentially meeting the Verdasco-Basilashvili winner. Also in the top section, Shapovalov and Carreno Busta are going head-to-head right off the bat. Among the other intriguing first-rounders are Rublev vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime, Khachanov vs. Hubert Hurkacz, Jannik Sinner vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber, Feliciano Lopez vs. Gilles Simon, and Hyeon Chung vs. Milos Raonic.
First-round upset alert: Hubert Hurkacz over (2) Karen Khachanov. Khachanov is coming off a tough and mostly disappointing week in front of the Russian crowd in Moscow. He had to save five match points to beat a struggling Kohlschreiber before falling to Andreas Seppi in his second match. Hurkacz skipped last week after playing well in Shanghai, where he advanced to the third round and then lost to Tsitsipas in a third-set tiebreaker.
[crowdsignal poll=10438147]
Hot: Dominic Thiem, Matteo Berrettini, Andrey Rublev, Denis Shapovalov, Pablo Carreno Busta, Jannik Sinner, Adrian Mannarino
Cold: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Kyle Edmund, Milos Raonic, Hyeon Chung, Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Quarterfinal predictions: Dominic Thiem over Pablo Carreno Busta, Matteo Berrettini over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Guido Pella over Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Hubert Hurkacz over Diego Schwartzman
Semifinals: Thiem over Berrettini and Hurkacz over Pella
Final: Thiem over Hurkacz
[crowdsignal poll=10438206]
who ya got?
Thiem d Mannarino (I went for the Hurkacz-Khach upset)
Fed d Zverev(who would pick against him here)
31 people have so far, but most went with Fed, including me.
Thiem over KK in Vienna.
I don’t think hurkaczs game matches up well against certain big hitters like Khatch or Pouille.
Berrettini struggled
Tsitsipas is terrible but he manages to win in 3 over Berankis. Sascha Zverev is such a useless pick. Hurkacz was a terrible pick too.
And I shouldn’t be surprised Verdasco took the first set and will likely win this match. Thiem hasn’t ever beaten him. Thiem is a notoriously bad performer in Vienna. I’ll try to do a more careful job picking in last chance Paris next week. Completely overlooked De Minaur’s name in Basil. It’s embarrassing! I love De Minaur; hope he can beat Struff, tho.
Stan Wawrinka looks very strong. Tiafoe is shaking his head in this first set about it: too good.
Thought about picking Stan to beat Fed and going on to win Basel. They have only played once in (2011) Basel SF.
So TC is showing Stan v Tiafoe exclusively. But in Vienna Thiem is serving for the third set and match! Wow victory over Verdasco for Dominic Thiem! Ah but he meets PCB next – still time for Thiem to lose his chance to win the Vienna title, LOL.
Tiafoe gets a break! 2nd set. Go Big Foe!
Terrible. Stan pulls out (for why?) and gives Federer a walkover into SF. It’s too bad they don’t let Tiafoe play in Stan’s place. imo.
Should never happen . They should at least try to play.
I don’t know what’s wrong with Stan but he’s a tough guy, not given to pulling out lightly, even if his chances of beating Fed in Basel lie somewhere between slim and none.
Wow! Alex demon has some shades of the famous Rafa “actitude”. So rog will have to beat two next gens back to back for his beloved basel title
Didn’t see the match but so happy for A. Demon. He’s a fighter and is following a smart path. Big hopes for Alex Demon!