Shanghai SF preview and prediction: Rublev vs. Dimitrov

Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the final of the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Saturday night.

The head-to-head series is all tied up at three wins apiece and all six of their previous encounters have been played on hard courts, although Rublev holds a 3-1 edge outdoors. They have not faced each other (aside from a recent exhibition match) since the 2022 Vienna tournament, where Dimitrov prevailed 6-3, 6-4. Their only previous Masters 1000 meeting came last year in the Indian Wells quarterfinals, with Rublev cruising 7-5, 6-2.

This one has the makings of a blockbuster battle, as they have clearly been the two best players throughout this fortnight in Shanghai. Dimitrov’s run to the semis included a fourth-round upset of Carlos Alcaraz and the 32-year-old Bulgarian has now won multiple matches at nine of his last 10 events. He has also taken out Aleksandar Vukic, Karen Khachanov, and Nicolas Jarry.

Rublev has been in fine form all year long and will officially clinch a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals if he wins the Shanghai title. It would mark the second Masters 1000 triumph of his career, having previously lifted the trophy in Monte-Carlo this spring. Prior to avenging his Beijing loss to Ugo Humbert with a 6-2, 6-3 romp on Friday, the Russian defeated Quentin Halys, Adrian Mannarino, and Tommy Paul. Rublev has not dropped a single set so far at this tournament.

“It’s gonna be a tough match–first of all because he’s a friend and I like him,” the world No. 7 said of Dimitrov. “Obviously the second part, he’s really a great player. It’s tough to beat him when he’s feeling the game. When he’s in form he can play amazing. This week he’s playing really well–especially the match with Alcaraz. I hope we can show great tennis and people will enjoy.”

In four outdoor hard-court meetings, Rublev owns a trio of wins in straight sets and has never lost in straights. Considering that history and also his current level of play, Shanghai’s fifth seed should have a slight edge in a high-quality contest.

Pick: Rublev in 3