Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev will be squaring off for the 12th time in their careers when they battle in the quarterfinals of the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Friday.
Medvedev once led the head-to-head series 6-2, but it now stands at a more competitive 7-4 in his favor. De Minaur has found some success in this matchup with victories last spring at Roland Garros (4-6, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3) and earlier this season in Monte-Carlo (6-2, 6-2).
It has already been an eventful Shanghai fortnight for Medvedev. The 18th-ranked Russian was cramping badly in the second set against Learner Tien on Wednesday but managed to prevail 7-6(6), 6-7(1), 6-4 after two hours and 52 minutes of grueling tennis. That was preceded by straight-set defeats of Dalibor Svrcina and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
De Minaur, on the other hand, has never had any trouble in extreme conditions and no one in Shanghai has enjoyed a more routine trip through the draw. The seventh-ranked Australian secured his spot in the last eight by beating Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Kamil Majchrzak, and Nuno Borges with dropping a set or even being pushed to a tiebreaker. De Minaur is now an awesome 50-18 for his 2025 campaign.
Even if physicality was not a factor, De Minaur is the better player right now–and really has been for the last two seasons. Given Medvedev’s recent struggles with heat and humidity (including last month in Beijing, also against Tien), De Minaur is probably the last guy the 29-year-old would want to face in this situation.
Look for the No. 7 seed to grind Medvedev into submission, probably even before it gets to a third set.
Pick: De Minaur in 2
WWW?
Hoping for a Meddy win, but cant see it
Hell nah, demon all the way but i do admit Medvedev will still take the 2nd
For once Meddy overcomes his demons
Still anyones tournament
De Minaur in 3
Given Medvedev’s visible signs of fatigue in his match against Tien a couple of days ago, it would be reasonable to expect De Minur to have a strong chance of winning this match in straight sets. Medvedev has, in general, demonstrated diminished stamina in recent performances, as evidenced by his match against Tien in Beijing. No?