Following some 250-point tournaments and a pair of relatively underwhelming 500s, the Asian swing is heating up this week with the Shanghai Masters. An alarming five of the top 13 players in the world are absent (including top-ranked Rafael Nadal), but Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are both on board. This is also a crucial week for the race to London, with Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, and Kei Nishikori especially aware of that fact.
Shanghai Masters
Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $7,086,700
Points: 1000
Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Roger Federer
Draw analysis: Federer’s title defense looks like a tough task based on the bracket, as the 37-year-old’s opener is likely to come against Tokyo champion Daniil Medvedev and big-serving Canadian Milos Raonic looms large as a possible third-round opponent. Nishikori, the runner-up to Medvedev on Sunday, also finds himself in the top section of the draw. Federer, meanwhile, is playing an official tournament for the first time since falling to John Millman in the U.S. Open fourth round.
The other quarter in the top half has no obvious favorite but is notably deep. An ill Juan Martin Del Potro struggled in a Beijing final loss to Nikoloz Basilashvili, so the Argentine is a question mark heading into Shanghai. Thiem has never been at his best on hard courts, but the Austrian is heating up on this surface with a U.S. Open quarterfinal run and a recent title in St. Petersburg. Nick Kyrgios, Richard Gasquet, Frances Tiafoe, and the winner of a first-round showdown between Borna Coric and Stan Wawrinka could also do some damage.
Relative to that of Federer, Djokovic’s road at the bottom of the bracket looks like a cakewalk. The second-seeded Serb should at least coast through two routine matches before possibly running into trouble at the quarterfinal stage in the form of either Anderson, Stefanos Tsitsipas, or Karen Khachanov. Anderson is seventh in the 2018 race but not exactly close to clinching a spot at the O2 Arena, so he could be feeling some pressure against either Gael Monfils, Tsitsipas, or Khachanov in the Shanghai third round.
Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev is in a funk but cannot be taken lightly at a Masters 1000 event (at 21 years old he already owns three of these titles). The German awaits a difficult opening match against Basilashvili or Denis Shapovalov. Basilashvili is making a quick turnaround on the heels of his Beijing triumph, so an edge in that one should go to Shapovalov. Marin Cilic and Alex de Minaur may also be in the mix in this quarter.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Stan Wawrinka over (13) Borna Coric. Wawrinka leads the head-to-head series 3-0 (6-1 in total sets) and he has advanced out of the first round in five consecutive tournaments. Coric is 0-2 on the Asian swing, with a Shenzhen setback against Cameron Norrie and an even worse loss to Feliciano Lopez in Beijing.
[polldaddy poll=10129831]
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, Dominic Thiem, Kei Nishikori, Karen Khachanov, Daniil Medvedev, Alex de Minaur, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Gilles Simon
Cold: Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Roberto Bautista Agut, Stan Wawrinka, Adrian Mannarino, Gael Monfils, Hyeon Chung
Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over Kei Nishikori, Dominic Thiem over Richard Gasquet, Denis Shapovalov over Marin Cilic, and Novak Djokovic over Karen Khachanov
Semifinals: Federer over Thiem and Djokovic over Shapovalov
Final: Djokovic over Federer
[polldaddy poll=10128940]
who ya got?
The second semifinal should be djokovic over shapovalov, not over khachanov. Btw I think that federer will win.
1st semi – Federer over DelPotro (hoping DelPo recovers from his illness and Fed makes it through a sticky draw based on his usual excellent play at Shanghai)
2nd semi Djokovic over Cilic
Winner Djokovic (I’d prefer Fed but Djoko really wants that #1 and he should be well rested, especially with an easier draw than Fed – for once!)
I hope, Fed & Djoko will lose.