Rome R3 previews and predictions: Ruud vs. Berrettini, Paul vs. Machac

The Rome third round wraps up on Monday with Madrid champion Casper Ruud in action against crowd favorite Matteo Berrettini. American Tommy Paul will also take the court against Czech Tomas Machac.

(6) Casper Ruud vs. (29) Matteo Berrettini

Norway’s Casper Ruud is a two-time French Open finalist (2022, 2023) and a U.S. Open finalist (2022), yet he just won his first Masters 1000 title two weeks ago in Madrid. It was a big breakthrough for the world No. 7, who has historically come up just short in the biggest moments. He seems to be peaking at just the right time, too. Roland Garros is right around the corner and the confidence that comes with a Masters 1000 title can only help. Ruud’s form is also peaking at the right time, as he has turned things around this season following a slow start.

Although Matteo Berrettini seems to be at his best on grass, he has given Ruud plenty of problems in the past. The two men have met seven times before; Ruud owns a slight 4-3 edge, but Berrettini won their last meeting back in 2023 at the United Cup. The Italian is a proficient clay-courter in his own right, with six titles on the dirt in his career. Still, of the two men Ruud is not only better on clay but he is also in superior form.

Cheryl pick: Ruud in 3

Ricky pick: Berrettini in 3

(11) Tommy Paul vs. (19) Tomas Machac

Like most Americans, Tommy Paul doesn’t quite look at home on European clay. The slippery, slow surface compromises his movement and makes him vulnerable at the baseline–which is his bread and butter. He’s never won a clay-court title and his career record is right around .500 on the dirt. There is also the reality that he is 0-2 against his Monday opponent, Tomas Machac.

Czechia’s Tomas Machac is no clay-courter either, so he isn’t a clear-cut favorite due to surface alone. He has a single career title that came on the hard courts of Acapulco earlier this year. In fact, Paul is the more experienced and consistent peformer. But since clay effectively neutralizes the American’s biggest weapons, the edge has to go to Machac due to head-to-head.

Cheryl pick: Machac in 3

Ricky pick: Machac in 3