Rome R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Sinner, Bautista Agut vs. Garin

A blockbuster battle between Rafael Nadal and Jannik Sinner will take center stage on Wednesday at the Rome Masters. Roberto Bautista Agut and Cristian Garin are also aiming for a place in the round of 16.

Jannik Sinner vs. (2) Rafael Nadal


Nadal and Sinner will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Wednesday. Their only previous encounter came last fall at the French Open, where Sinner played him tough for a while before Nadal ran away with a 7-6(4), 6-4, 6-1 victory.

Sinner earned another shot at the 20-time Grand Slam champion by erasing Ugo Humbert 6-2, 6-4 on Monday. The 19-year-old italian is now 4-2 lifetime in Rome, which includes an upset of Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to last season’s third round. Nadal has won only a single clay-court tournament so far this spring, but he will be well-rested after bowing early in Madrid (lost to Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals). Conditions are far more favorable for world No. 3 in Rome, where he is 63-7 lifetime with nine titles. This should be a fun one, but Nadal will likely get the job done in two competitive sets.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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WWW: Nadal vs. Sinner?


(10) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Cristian Garin

If not for Sinner, Bautista Agut may be one of the race leaders to Milan this year. The 11th-ranked Spaniard is 0-3 against Sinner and 18-8 against everyone else. Bautista Agut, a finalist in Montpellier and Doha plus a semifinalist in Miami, maintained his fine form with a 6-3, 6-4 defeat of Tommy Paul on Tuesday.

Up next for Rome’s No. 10 seed is a first-ever meeting with Garin, who advanced with a 7-5, 6-2 victory over Lloyd Harris. The 22nd-ranked Chilean recently posted quarterfinal results in Estoril and Madrid, further cementing his status as a clay-court specialist. He has reached six ATP finals in his career (five titles) and all six have come on the red stuff. This should be one of the best matches of the entire Rome second round, but Garin is one of those guys who beats up on lesser competition and struggles against the world’s best. Bautista Agut will probably too mentally strong in the pressure-packed moments and therefore that trend for Garin can be expected to continue.

Pick: Bautista Agut in 3

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WWW: Bautista Agut vs. Garin?

9 Comments on Rome R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Sinner, Bautista Agut vs. Garin

  1. Actually IMO going all the way in Madrid damages one’s clay court preparation. I said this basically every year: Monte Carlo and Madrid calendar slots should be swapped. The latter would be an excellent transition from hard to clay but it’s very damaging in the middle of the clay season.

    So Rafa losing rather early last week means that he’s a heavy favourite for Rome. That being said, Sinner lost even earlier in Madrid and made SFs in Barcelona so I’m not sure what to expect today.

    If Nadal finally got over his serving issues (which still impaired him last week), he’ll get the job done in 2. Otherwise he’ll struggle and an upset is not inconceivable.

    This match might actually prove Rafa’s toughest one in this tournament, if he wins in a convincing way I doubt that there’ll be any surprises down the road.

    • Are rafa’s serve problems because he still has issues with his back? Having issues with his back might mean he is nervous it is going to suddenly go off again.
      BG said he changed his serve motion at AO and is still serving differently. This suggests to me that that there is either an underlying problem or fear of reactivating it.
      It reminds me of 2014 when he had the back problem at AO and then had a poor clay court season before Rg.
      At Rg 2014 Courier said he was sure that part of the reason for that was Rafa being afraid of injuring himself again. Whenever he is in This frame of mind he has problems with confidence and loses matches.
      I am asking because I can’t watch any tennis until Rg.

      • Who knows what’s in Rafa’s head? He might not even realise that he has this lingering fear of injuring his back again. Even if you’re watching him serve, how can you tell what’s the actual problem?

        IMO it’s rather lack of practice serving. Getting rid of the altered serve motion is not as simple as changing a shirt. It takes time, especially since Nadal doesn’t seem to like serving so everything has to be forcefully re-wired into his brain. I’m also pretty sure that he worked on getting the rest of his shots sorted out first once he started training normally again.

  2. Gosh!! Jannik sinner almost caused panic nadal.. dont want him anywhere near rafas bracket

    But rafas last two breaks from 0-30 down was something

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