Rome R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Ilhan, Federer vs. Cuevas

Fed 2Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will begin their weeks in Rome during second-round action on Wednesday. Nadal is going up against Marsel Ilhan, while Federer is facing Pablo Cuevas.

(Q) Marsel Ilhan vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Attempting to bounce back from a tough loss has become commonplace for Nadal, who is faced with this situation yet again as he heads into the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. The Spaniard at least made it to the Madrid final last week, but he got upset in convincing 6-3, 6-2 fashion by an in-form Andy Murray. Nadal, who has plunged to No. 7 in the world, has lost eight matches already this season–including an alarming four on clay.

Next up for the seven-time Rome champion is a first-ever meeting with Ilhan on Wednesday. It has already been an outstanding week for the 87th-ranked Turk, who qualified for the main draw before drubbing Adrian Mannarino in straight sets on Monday. This is, of course, a massive step up in competition for Ilhan–and not just because Mannarino is a borderline disaster on clay. Expect one-way to traffic to take place with Nadal eager to make some kind of statement after Sunday’s debacle.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Pablo Cuevas vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Cuevas did not face each other a single time throughout the first 11 years in which they were on the pro tour at the same time. Now they will go head-to-head for the second time during this current clay-court swing when they meet again on Wednesday. The inaugural Istanbul final pitted the two veterans against each other, with Federer triumphing 6-3, 7-6(11).

Cuevas has won 16 matches and one title (Sao Paulo) this season, helping him climb to No. 24 in the world. The Uruguayan maintained his fine form by easing past Paolo Lorenzi 6-3, 6-2 in the Rome first round. Federer initially thought about skipping this event, but an immediate loss in Madrid to Nick Kyrgios changed those plans. The second-ranked Swiss is a modest 5-2 on clay this year and 27-14 lifetime in Rome. This is unlikely to be a rout, but a well-rested Federer should have enough to get the job done.

Pick: Federer in 2 losing 8-10 games

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41 Comments on Rome R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Ilhan, Federer vs. Cuevas

    • No disrespect to Mr. Ilhan, but not surprising considering who Rafa is playing. Still not hitting as cleanly as I would like but this is the sort of match Rafa needs, build up slowly, get the feel of the ball back, get his range and he will start to calm down more on court.

      Pity he is playing Isner tomorrow, will disrupt the rhythm he built up in this match.

      BP conversion still not good enough, needs to horn that up before RG.

    • May 13, 2015 at 1:11 pm,

      ==============================

      Armchair doctors (aka Arrogant Mom husband fans) have diagnosed Rafa with OCD and Their Believers have believed them. Nothing new.

      • If arrogance is not assuming Rafa playing Roger will make fedfans happy, contradicting myself by saying I always expect Rafa to win and accusing others of behaviour I continually exhibit myself, I’ll take arrogance (given the source) as a compliment!

      • I did too. A good shot. A reasonable chance. 10-23 is a reasonable chance.

        You conveniently point out words of others and hide your own.

        Having a good shot is not the same as what you said which was that fedfans would have been happy had they met (which assumes fed would have won) which neither myself nor nny thought. You did. So much for “always expecting Rafa to win”.

        The bigger issue is you accusing others of the same behaviour you exhibit time and time again.

      • She’s right, it wasn’t her that said “I think, it was better to lose today than make Fedfans happy tomorrow!” when Rafa lost to Raonic which stopped him from meeting Fed.

        #NNYsRight
        #MirkasRight

  1. Level of tennis was generally good from rafa. The opponent had a decent first serve and his ground strokes had good penetration. Rafa was hitting both his forehand and backhand pretty well for most part but there are still those errors that cause frustration. He suddenly misses a shot we never think he would miss. The serving decent too.

    Well, rafa’s level of tennis has surely improved since barcelona. He has gotten more aggressive and more consistent but I know level of tennis is not the biggest concern. It is his wavering confidence and mental fragility which have hurt him. Madrid final was disastrous by so many means.

    Still, there are some positives. He is finding the feel for his shots on a little more regular basis now. He finally delivers his first bagel of the EU clay court season!

    I am gutted he has to play Isner now. Isner is so dangerous for this rafa. Playing tie breaks agaisnt Isner is common and given rafa’s struggles, this could be very dangerous.I hope he gets a win !

    Playing really well in rome is MANDATORY.

    • Ilhan is ranked #87, none of the players Rafa played in Barcelona were that lowly ranked. Of course the match against Fog was a disaster, so was the Madrid Final. But in between those bad matches he has had some good ones. The problem for Rafa has been maintaining consistency.

      I wish he was playing someone like Simon tomorrow, someone who will give him rhythm, allow him to “practice” his groundies. Izzy it is, took a set off Rafa in Monaco, courts are playing fast so will be fascinating to see.

    • vamosrafa,

      Great analysis. This is a result that I would expect against a guy like that. But it’s a good match for Rafa after the disappointing Madrid final. It gets him back on track.

      it’s just the absolute worst thing for him to meet Isner in the next match. The guy will give him zero rhythm and of course, there’s the pressure to hold serve against a guy who is so tough to break. This is the one that worried me the most.

      Rafa simply has not been able to play at a consistently high enough level to win and defend his points. The core problem is mental, but the end result is that his ranking has slipped now.

      The next match is going to be a nerve wracking one. I said that winning in Madrid was essential. Doing well in Rome is also absolutely necessary. Rafa can’t go into RG on a total downward slope.

  2. One shocking stat was 38% of second serve points won. Rafa MUST improve . The level of tennis is making decent progress but we know there is something more important to sort out .

    • Unfortunately, that stat has been all too consistent. Rafa is not winning enough points with his second serve. It’s become quite the liability.

  3. playing Isner is frustrating to watch…and the tie-breaks seem inevitable…this year Rafa playing any tie-break is a frustration by itself…huh…not looking forward to it…for Isner Rafa has to be mentally strong…will he be?….well, we hope so….

    yeah, plenty of room for improvement…but at least we can say that Rafa IS improving…

  4. Isner has yet to win against Rafa, hope tomorrow is not a first. Getting tired of these first time winners against Rafa.

    • May 13, 2015 at 2:13 pm,

      the French Crowd cheering…
      ==================================
      Not the French Crowd! Arrogant Mom husband fans will be cheering.

      • No significant difference. There is no greater concentration of fedfans than the French Crowd. They cheer vociferously against their own in favour of him

        A weed by any other name is still a weed. (e.g. octobrina10)

        Hilarious!!!

  5. The defender of CryBaby who instigated the Australian (fed-fan) dominated crowd to boo Rafa and the defender of the fedfan dominated French Crowd (a crowd that even Rafa and Uncle Toni have criticized) and the attacker of so many real Rafans here is all one poster.

    …and it makes me wonder.

  6. This is also the person who persists in bringing people into an argument even when they have not been participating. I dislike having any of my previous comments brought up when I am not even involved in the discussion!

    The behavior is beyond obnoxious and incredibly rude and disrespectful. The best thing is to try and ignore it, but that’s not always easy.

    • nativenewyorker7 says:
      May 13, 2015 at 3:51 pm
      —I dislike having any of my previous comments brought up when I am not even involved in the discussion!—
      ================================

      But, you brought up a previous comment of “the one”.

      • augusta,

        The only person who used to do this on TT was scoretracker. That person would always post comments from other posters all over the place, bringing up stuff from way back. It was outrageous.

        You posted a comment from me in your ongoing battle with hawkeye. My point was that I was not even on the site at that time. I wasn’t addressing you in any way.

        Please cease with these pathetic excuses for your behavior. You keep trying to get out of what you said. But there is nowhere to hide.

        Hawkeye posted all of it. So there is not need for me to do it again. You know what you said. You were okay with Rafa losing to Raonic because it would make Fed fans happy! That clearly indicates that you expected Rafa to lose to Fed in the semis.

        You keep quoting my comments and all it does is mae you look even more ridiculous. Yes, I said that Fed had a shot at winning against Rafa. Do you know what the words “a shot” mean? Maybe you need to look them up! However, I at least wanted Rafa to win against Raonic no matter the fact that he would face Fed in the next round. I always want Rafa to win and am not afraid for him to face anyone! Why wouldn’t I want my favorite player to advance to the semis? But you would rather Rafa lose to Raonic then face Fed and make Fed fans happy!

        That’s what you said! Deal with it!

    • nativenewyorker7 says:
      May 13, 2015 at 11:54 pm,

      —-The only person who used to do this on TT was scoretracker.—
      ========================================================
      Leave me out of your personal battles you fought once upon a time!

      • nativenewyorker7 says:
        May 13, 2015 at 11:54 pm,
        —You posted a comment from me in your ongoing battle with hawkeye. …I wasn’t addressing you in any way.—
        —-Hawkeye posted all of it. So there is not need for me to do it again.—
        ===========================================================
        He is fighting HIS battles because of what YOU said. …You referred to my sentence.

        Nope, he didn’t posted it all – he has twisted it all (as he always does). It’s very necessary to remind you what you have said.

        And look at him (at 1:44 am) – you made him happy again! He is hungry for praise and starving for appreciation. You keep him properly nourished! 😆

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