Rome R1 previews and predictions: Sinner vs. Humbert, Cilic vs. Bublik

Jannik Sinner will kick off his campaign in front of the home crowd in Rome when he faces Ugo Humbert on Monday. Meanwhile, Madrid quarterfinalist Alexander Bublik is going up against fellow big server Marin Cilic.

Ugo Humbert vs. Jannik Sinner

Sinner may be only 19 years old, but he already has a history at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. At just 17, Sinner won a main-draw match at the 2019 event (d. Steve Johnson) before falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Last fall he destroyed Benoit Paire and then got revenge on Tsitsipas via a 6-1, 6-7(9), 6-2 decision (eventually lost to Grigor Dimitrov in three tight sets). The world No. 18 has advanced at least one round in each of this three clay-court tournaments in 2021, including a trip to the Barcelona semifinals.

Up first for Sinner on Monday is Humbert, who won their only previous encounter in four sets at the 2019 NextGen ATP Finals. The 32nd-ranked Frenchman is just 7-9 so far this season, including 1-3 on clay. Humbert will likely make this competitive, but Sinner has won a lot more matches of late and that should give him the edge confidence-wise in the pressure-packed moments.

Pick: Sinner in 2

Marin Cilic vs. Alexander Bublik

Cilic and Bublik will also be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers. Interestingly, their only previous meeting came in the same round of this same Rome tournament last fall, when Cilic prevailed 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-4. The 43rd-ranked Croat wasn’t playing then and he still isn’t now, but he is at least winning as much as he is losing in 2021 (8-7 record). Cilic advanced to the Estoril semifinals two weeks ago before skipping Madrid, so he is well-rested heading into Rome.

Bublik, on the other hand, is coming off a quarterfinal run in Madrid so he will be making a quick turnaround. The 40th-ranked Kazakh took out Marton Fucsovics, Denis Shapovalov, and Aslan Karatsev but then got blown out by Casper Ruud 7-5, 6-1. This will be a tough task for Bublik, because Cilic is more rested, better on clay, and has the confidence from their 2020 encounter.

Pick: Cilic in 3