Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz. It’s happening for the first time this season and for the first time in a final above the ATP 500 level.
Sinner and Alcaraz will be facing each other for the 11th time in their careers when they battle for Rome Masters title on Sunday. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 6-4 and has surprisingly won three in a row at Sinner’s expense, taking all three of their 2024 encounters (in three sets at the Indian Wells Masters, in five sets at Roland Garros, and in a third-set tiebreaker at the Beijing 500).
Of course, it’s not like Sinner will be lacking confidence. Not only is Sinner 1-1 lifetime against Alcaraz on clay (the Italian won 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-1 at the 2022 Umag event), but he is also quite simply the best player in the world right now. Sinner triumphed at the 2025 Australian Open before being suspended for three months, and he has picked up right where he left off. Rome’s top seed has advanced this fortnight by beating Mariano Navone, Jesper de Jong, Francisco Cerundolo, Casper Ruud, and Tommy Paul, dropping just one set to Paul along the way.
Alcaraz is through to his third consecutive final on the European clay-court swing. The third-ranked Spaniard beat Lorenzo Musetti for the Monte-Carlo title before suffering an injury-plagued loss to Holger Rune in Barcelona. Alcaraz missed Madrid with that leg issue but is back in business at the Foro Italico, where he has defeated Dusan Lajovic, Laslo Djere, Karen Khachanov, Jack Draper, and Musetti. Only Khachanov has managed to steal a set.
As with any Sinner-Alcaraz match, this could go either way. Although the world No. 1 has been the best player all tournament long (especially in a 6-0, 6-1 quarterfinal rout of Ruud), there are some questions following the semis due to having looked less than 100 percent physically against Paul. Alcaraz seems to be entirely fit, but his game is somewhat all over the place in Rome–at least relative to Sinner’s.
Benefiting from a day off before the final, Sinner should be in better shape than he otherwise would be. With home-court advantage, he will likely have the edge. But he will obviously have to be 100 percent–or at least very close to that–to beat an opponent of Alcaraz’s caliber.
Pick: Sinner in 3
WWW?
To me. And this is what I have seen. The only thing separating these 2 are hold of serves. Alcaraz is not known as the strongest serve on tour but he more than makes up for it with his return game and ferocious forehands and drop shots. While he has given Sinner plenty of trouble in the past the last time they played in China Sinner had the Dope suspension case flying over him holding him back and that played a huge factor in that final vs Carlos. As far as form goes the winner goes to Jannik Sinner. He has been the better player all tournament. I say that is very surprising because everyone was expecting a dip in form after a long lay off but man. The ONLY thing that Sinner did bad this whole tournament was lose a set to Paul because he has a really bad blister from not being use to the physical conditions of playing in competitive nature after such a long lay off. But give me Sinner in 2. I’m calling it
Pretty simple:
I’m picking Alcaraz, the best clay courter in the world, to win in 3.
Alcaraz will beat Sinner on three sets
Alcaraz at his best is always better than Sinner on clay