The Asian swing concludes with the Rolex Shanghai Masters, where Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev are the favorites since Jannik Sinner is still sidelined by a knee injury. Despite Sinner’s absence, the field is stacked with 27 of the top 28 players in the world taking the court — including four-time Shanghai champion Novak Djokovic.
What’s in store for the penultimate Masters 1000 event of 2026?
Rolex Shanghai Masters
Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $9,415,725
Points: 1000
Top seed: Alexander Zverev
Defending champion: Valentin Vacherot
Draw analysis: The top half of the draw is loaded, home to Zverev, Djokovic, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, and Alex de Minaur. Shelton’s section especially stands out, as the U.S. Open runner-up could meet Jakub Mensik in the last 16 and Tiafoe is on course to face Chengdu champion Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in round three. Djokovic potentially awaits Chengdu finalist Hubert Hurkacz in the Serb’s opening match, although Hurkacz is a question mark for Shanghai after retiring from his Beijing semifinal against De Minaur on Monday. If Djokovic advances, the 39-year-old may have Lorenzo Musetti and then Tiafoe next on his plate.
Zverev has a slightly easier road to the semis, but it isn’t easy. The second-ranked German will have the crowd against him if he gets Yibing Wu in round two, while Alexander Blockx and Brandon Nakashima are possible third and fourth-round opponents, respectively. De Minaur, Andrey Rublev, and Karen Khachanov also find themselves in Zverev’s quarter.
Alcaraz is sitting pretty on the softer side of the bracket as he makes just his third Shanghai appearance, still bidding for his first title — and even his first semifinal showing. The third-ranked Spaniard could run into defending champion Valentin Vacherot in the fourth round. Vacherot is obviously a dangerous opponent — especially in Shanghai — but has not really recaptured the form that he flashed at the end of 2025. Daniil Medvedev, a potential quarterfinal foe for Alcaraz, will be hoping to bounce back from getting defaulted in the Beijing semis against Djokovic. Despite that disaster, the recent Hangzhou champion is in great form to begin the Asian swing.
First-round matches to watch include Arthur Fery vs. Marin Cilic, Holger Rune vs. Daniel Altmaier, Daniel Merida vs. Botic van de Zandschulp, and Denis Shapovalov vs. Cameron Norrie.
Hot: Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, Arthur Fils, Alex de Minaur, Jiri Lehecka, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Karen Khachanov, Alex Michelsen, Jaime Faria, Arthur Gea, Hubert Hurkacz, Jaume Munar
Cold: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Flavio Cobolli, Lorenzo Musetti, Casper Ruud, Ugo Humbert, Zhizhen Zhang, Tomas Machac, Marin Cilic, Holger Rune, Tallon Griekspoor, Hamad Medjedovic
Quarterfinal predictions: Andrey Rublev over Matteo Berrettini, Frances Tiafoe over Ben Shelton, Alex Michelsen over Learner Tien, and Daniil Medvedev over Carlos Alcaraz
Semifinals: Tiafoe over Rublev and Medvedev over Michelsen
Final: Medvedev over Tiafoe
who ya got?
I’m intrigued by Ricky’s predictions for the top-quarter QF. Berrettini has made a great start.
Hey all, my name is Nate and I am the growth lead of tennis at Polymarket (prediction market company). I would love to chat with you guys about potentially working together!
Have some time to chat this week?
The surname is pronounced the same as chancre, which very much fits with being a little pathogen spamming a tennis discussion, doesn’t it!😷
To be honest I just give posts like that a wide birth