For the first time since 2019, the Rolex Shanghai Masters is back on the ATP Tour calendar. It should be a fun, high-stakes fortnight, too. Five spots in the Nitto ATP Finals are still up for grabs and Novak Djokovic’s absence from Shanghai means the door is open for almost anyone to rack up ranking points in bunches. No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev is technically the defending champion since he lifted the trophy in 2019, but his defense will be challenged by the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Andrey Rublev, and Taylor Fritz.
Here is a breakdown of the Shanghai draw and my picks.
Rolex Shanghai Masters
Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $8,800,000
Points: 1000
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion: Daniil Medvedev
Draw analysis: Medvedev and Sinner are going head-to-head in the Beijing championship match on Wednesday, but they would meet in the Shanghai quarterfinals if they both advance that far. It’s a rough section of the draw that also includes Alexander Zverev and Astana runner-up Sebastian Korda. Medvedev could meet Korda in the third round, while Zverev may have to beat Andy Murray, Ben Shelton, Sinner, and Medvedev just to reach the semis.
The other section in the bottom half is there for the taking. Both Holger Rune and Casper Ruud have been struggling, so watch out for contenders such as Hubert Hurkacz, Alex de Minaur, and Stan Wawrinka. As an unseeded floater, Wawrinka has to play a first-round match (vs. Dusan Lajovic) and he would then get Tallon Griekspoor.
At the top of the bracket, Alcaraz will be looking to get back on track following his Beijing semifinal loss to Sinner. With 1000 ranking points available, the 20-year-old Spaniard will be motivated to make a real charge at Djokovic for the year-end No. 1 spot. Alcaraz is on a collision course with either Fritz or Frances Tiafoe for the Shanghai quarterfinals.
Elsewhere on Alcaraz’s side, watch out for Rublev. The sixth-ranked Russian is well rested after losing early in Beijing and he now has a Masters 1000 title under his belt (Monte-Carlo this spring). With Stefanos Tsitsipas and Cameron Norrie slumping and Tommy Paul having finally hit a cold spell, Rublev’s road to the semifinals is a favorable one.
Hot: Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, Nicolas Jarry, Tallon Griekspoor, Roman Safiullin, Sebastian Ofner, Matteo Arnaldi
Cold: Holger Rune, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Cameron Norrie, Jan-Lennard Struff, Miomir Kecmanovic, Brandon Nakashima, Fabio Fognini, Diego Schwartzman
Quarterfinal predictions: Carlos Alcaraz over Taylor Fritz, Andrey Rublev over Ugo Humbert, Alex de Minaur over Lorenzo Musetti, and Daniil Medvedev over Alexander Zverev
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Rublev and Medvedev over De Minaur
Final: Alcaraz over Medvedev
who ya got?