Rogers Cup R3 previews and picks: Gasquet vs. Nishikori, Berdych vs. Pospisil

Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet will be battling for a quarterfinal spot in Montreal on Thursday. Meanwhile, wild card Vasek Pospisil continues his campaign against Tomas Berdych. Chris Skelton previews the action.

(9) Kei Nishikori vs. (7) Richard Gasquet

The runner-up at the Rogers Cup last year, Gasquet feasted on a draw decimated by withdrawals after the Olympics. He defeated Americans Mardy Fish and John Isner in the last two rounds before falling meekly to Novak Djokovic. Nevertheless, this event often has inspired some of the Frenchman’s best tennis. He played a spectacular set against Rafael Nadal at the Rogers Cup five years ago, when the Spaniard won the title, and he came within a set of the title himself in 2006.

All three of those achievements came on the slower courts of Toronto, more suited to Gasquet’s long swings than the courts in Montreal. The compact strokes and symmetrical baseline play of Nishikori, trained at the Bolletieri Academy, may shine more on the faster surface. But Nishikori started slowly in each of his first two matches this week, losing the first set in both of them before gradually finding his rhythm. Once he did, his sturdy fitness reaped rewards in dominant third sets. Gasquet never faced much adversity against Martin Klizan, by contrast, as he advanced in straight sets.

The highest-ranked Japanese man ever, Nishikori has begun to capitalize his potential over the last 12 months, winning two hard-court titles at the 500 level. Gasquet impressed at his last hard-court tournament in Miami, where he reached the semifinals, but his results dwindled over the spring and summer. He has won both of his previous meetings with Nishikori, and both resoundingly, although they have not met in over three years. Both men have developed into more formidable talents since then, with Nishikori overcoming a series of injuries and Gasquet maturing into a steadier competitor. Djokovic looms in the next round for either Nishikori or Gasquet, so their chances to progress any further than Friday are slim at best. Judging by their previous meetings and their form this week, a rematch of last year’s Rogers Cup final seems the likely result.

Skelton pick: Gasquet in 2

Dimon pick: Gasquet in 3

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(5) Tomas Berdych vs. (WC) Vasek Pospisil

This match marks the first meeting between two men who similarly rely on serve-forehand combinations to dictate points from the outset. A leading Canadian hope, Pospisil has struck a rich vein of form at just the right time. He reached his first ATP semifinal in Bogota last month and followed that achievement with a title at the Vancouver Challenger last week. Buoyed by the support of his home fans, Pospisil opened his Montreal campaign with a stunning upset of John Isner and then dominated wily veteran Radek Stepanek.

Like his run in Bogota, the Canadian’s nerve-jangling victory over Isner revealed a competitor who excels when the pressure mounts highest. Pospisil broke the towering American just once in three sets and trailed in both tiebreaks. Yet he responded undaunted to that situation, as he had in winning three straight three-setters in Bogota and a three-set final in Vancouver. This courage will help Pospisil believe that he can deliver the biggest win of his career despite the gulf in the rankings separating him from Berdych.

For all of the Czech star’s accomplishments, he remains more vulnerable than most elite players in early rounds. Berdych fell in the first round of Roland Garros this spring, in the first round of Wimbledon last year, and to the unheralded Thiemo De Bakker in his last tournament. His form has fluctuated unpredictably this year from one tournament to the next. Still, Berdych shook off any hard-court rust successfully in his first match on the surface since Miami. After an early wobble against Alexandr Dolgopolov, he stayed focused and disciplined in reasserting his command.

Berdych and Pospisil inhabit the quarter of the draw without any member of the Big Four. An opportunity thus awaits for Berdych to launch a deep run here if he can keep his emotions in check against the explosive home hope. The Montreal crowd and Pospisil’s recent momentum should make this match more interesting than expected before the favorite prevails.

Skelton pick: Berdych in 3

Dimon pick: Berdych in 2

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8 Comments on Rogers Cup R3 previews and picks: Gasquet vs. Nishikori, Berdych vs. Pospisil

  1. If Popsi’s courageous efforts continue, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility he could take down Berdych. His ability to stay calm and focussed when the odds are stacked against him is formidable given his lack of experience at the ATP level.

    I smell an upset coming!

  2. Well done Popsi. The best match of the day so far. What a dream run he’s having – but one has to wonder how long he can keep up this form. Three hard matches against vastly more experienced opponents is bound to take its toll sooner or later.

  3. Do we know why Davydenko retired? What was the reason/excuse.

    I’m guessing Gulbis will prevail against Raonic which will spell the end of Popsi’s dream run.

  4. So I was wrong about Raonic choking. Pretty touch and go match though. The home crowd did a good job cheering him across the line.

    Gulbis must be the most frustrating player of all times if you happen to be one of his fans – which I am definitely not.

  5. I thought that Gulbis would win. But he really choked in that last service game to give Raonic the win. I can’t even look at Raonic anymore after what happened last night. Ernie loves to rile the Canadian fans. He really is an obnoxious brat on the court. But when he’s on his game, he is very dangerous. His biggest weakness is that he is not mentally tough. That’s why he lost this match. It’s also why he always loses to Rafa. He can take it to Rafa and give him a tough match, but Rafa is too strong mentally. He wills himself to win against Ernie.

    ed,

    I agree that Gulbis has to be the most frustrating player of all times if you are his fan. Fortunately for me, that is not the case! He has made such a joke of his career. This guy could have really done something in this sport. But he wasn’t willing to take it seriously enough and put in the effort. What a waste.

    Early dinner with Rafa coming up!

  6. Hello is anyone here watching the match?

    Where are you vamosrafa! You have to see this!

    Rafa is returning serve standing either at or inside the baseline. Unbelievable! He’s hitting cc backhand ROS winners! He just broke this guy! He is dialed in tonight!

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