Carlos Alcaraz will be back in action for a full day of second-round action at the 500-point tournament in Rio de Janeiro. Sebastian Baez, who ended Thomaz Bellucci’s career on Wednesday, now faces Juan Pablo Varillas.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. Fabio Fognini
Alcaraz, who missed the Australian Open because of a leg injury, hopes to make up for lost time by taking his talents to the Golden Swing. The 19-year-old Spaniard got off to a good start by rolling to last week’s Buenos Aires title and now he is a heavy favorite at the Rio Open–which he won last season. Alcaraz had to work hard when he opened his title defense, but he got past Mateus Alves 6-4, 6-4 after a total of one hour and 56 minutes across Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon.
Up next for the world No. 2 on Thursday is a second meeting with Fognini. Their only previous encounter came at this same Rio de Janeiro tournament last February, when Alcaraz prevailed 6-2, 7-5 in the semifinals. This one should even more routine, as Fognini is well past his prime. The 35-year-old Spaniard is down at 86th in the rankings and he had not won a match in 2023 before beating Tomas Barrios Vera in the opening round. It would be surprising if Fognini gets more than a few games in any set.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
Juan Pablo Varillas vs. (6) Sebastian Baez
Baez and Varillas will also be going head-to-head for the second time on the main tour, but they have squared off a whopping six times on the Challenger and Futures circuits. Unsurprisingly, these two clay-court specialists have only faced each other on the slow stuff. Baez has won five of their seven matches, including via a 6-4, 6-4 decision at the 2022 ATP 250 in Santiago.
Varillas was mostly unknown at the time, but he is starting to make a name for himself. The 81st-ranked Peruvian led Felix Auger-Aliassime by two sets at last year’s French Open before falling in five and he has won four main-tour matches in 2023. Varillas beat Hugo Gaston 7-5, 6-4 in his Rio opener, while Baez sent Thomaz Bellucci into retirement with a 6-3, 6-2 victory on Wednesday night. Although Varillas has improved a lot, Baez has also shot up the rankings since they last faced each other 12 months ago. Count on the Argentine rolling into the quarterfinals on his eventual way to the semis against Alcaraz.
Pick: Baez in 2
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