Rio de Janeiro QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Dolgopolov, Ferrer vs. Thiem

Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer will contest intriguing quarterfinal matches on Friday in Rio de Janeiro. Nadal is going up against Alexandr Dolgopolov, while Ferrer is facing an in-form Dominic Thiem.

Rio Open: (1) Rafael Nadal vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Nadal and Dolgopolov will be meeting for the eighth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the semifinals of the Rio Open on Friday. Although Nadal leads the head-to-head series 5-2, Dolgopolov has won two in a row at the Spaniard’s expense. The Ukrainian prevailed in a third-set tiebreaker at the 2014 Indian Wells Masters before scoring a 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-4 victory on the grass courts of Queen’s Club last summer. This time around, Nadal has the benefit of being back on clay–a surface that has seen him defeat Dolgopolov twice in two tries. The former world No. 1 got the job done in 6-4, 6-3 six years ago in Madrid and 6-3, 7-6(3) in the title match of this same Rio event in 2014.

In dire need of anther strong Rio showing following recent losses at the Australian Open (first round to Fernando Verdasco) and in Buenos Aires (semifinals to Dominic Thiem), Nadal has advanced this week with straight-set wins over countrymen Pablo Carreno Busta and Nicolas Almagro. Dolgopolov punched his ticket to the last eight by beating Thomaz Bellucci (6-7(3), 7-5, 6-2) and Inigo Cervantes (3-6, 6-0, 6-3). The world No. 33 is a decent 5-3 for his 2016 campaign and coming off a round-one Buenos Aires setback at the hands of Diego Schwartzman. Nadal is not consistent enough at the moment to make this entirely straightforward, but on clay he should once against get the best of Dolgopolov in straights.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(5) Dominic Thiem vs. (2) David Ferrer

Ferrer and Thiem will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they square off in a blockbuster quarterfinal showdown on Friday. This matchup was almost last week’s Buenos Aires title match, but Ferrer could not uphold his end of the bargain. Part of that was due to bad luck, as the 33-year-old Spaniard had to play his quarter and semifinal matches on the same day. He held off Pablo Cuevas in three sets before his seeing his unblemished 15-0 lifetime record against Almagro come to an end.
Ferrer 3
Thiem, who had previously stunned Rafael Nadal in a third-set tiebreaker, also went the distance to beat Almagro for the Buenos Aires title. The 19th-ranked Austrian has remained in fine form with Rio de Janeiro victories over Pablo Andujar (6-3, 6-4) and Diego Schwartzman (7-5, 7-5). Theim is an amazing 22-1 in his last 23 clay-court matches at either the 250 or 500-point levels. Ferrer is a modest 10-4 on the season and looks ripe for an upset at the hands of a red-hot opponent who should benefit from having enjoyed a day off from singles on Thursday.

Pick: Thiem in 3

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52 Comments on Rio de Janeiro QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Dolgopolov, Ferrer vs. Thiem

  1. Rafa in 2 – Rafa cruises in one set and the other is tighter. Ferrer may wobble a set like today but it’s too much tennis for Thiem. Thiem runs outta steam. Ferrer in 3.

  2. I think that these will both be fun matches for the fans. I was at the Dolgo 3 set win at IW and that was just a fantastically entertaining match….but I like Rafa in straight this time….and Thiem in straight as well.

  3. Ferrer in three and Rafa in three. Should be good matches at all places tomorrow. The matches I’m looking forward to the most at each place would have to be Ferrer/Thiem in rio, Kyrgios/Gasquet in Marseille, and Chardy/del po in Delray beach. Also excited for ram and Becker. I was gonna go with Becker which is probably the safer pick but ram has really been on fire this week and has defied the odds a bit. Becker may use that momentum from his escape last round to muster a win but I feel like Ram’s serve is so good right now that he will get the W and reach the semis. That’s gonna be a close match though. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Becker win but my pick is Rajeev in 3.

  4. I think Ferrer will win in 3 sets. Thiem’s been on a roll but I think this is where it stops.

    I finally did get to see Rafa’s match on the tennis channel replay late tonight. That second set was deja vu all over again. But there was that one moment late in the second set when Rafa came up with one of his banana DTL forehands running off the court for a winner. That was a glimpse of the real Rafa!

    No predictions for Rafa, but I do think it’s going to be a tricky one for him against Dolgo.

    I am also looking forward to seeing Krygios-Gasquet and Delpo-Chardy.

  5. Anyone know where to find match points for Pella win and ram win? I recorded centre court from 3:30 to 8 so if they showed them on TC then I’m good I guess. Just asking though. Cuz I can’t find them on YouTube right now.

  6. Gosh, Thiem looks so natural on clay! He is moving so well, playing excellent clay court tennis and wining the rallies against Ferry in a fashionable way…

    Both Kyrgios and Thiem make the future of tennis! I think even this year they will make a difference and win some tourneys…Thiem having best chances on clay but is also good on hard while Nick will be more of the force on hard and grass…

    Ricky is right: The future is now! ?

  7. Wow. Not too surprised Thiem is winning but I am surprised that he is totally destroying. Looks like we will have a rematch of Rafa and Thiem. Rafa will be hunting for vengeance lol. Also that match against Smyczek and Querrey is a battle. Really hoping that Smyczek wins and not only because he’s never made a semifinal but also because he is such a fighter and I really like his game. Now he’s in trouble after a few pretty loose errors from 40-15 to deuce. Holy crap an insanely windy point and Smyczek somehow got it. Let’s go Tim!! VAMOS!!

  8. Dang I can’t believe how sloppy Smyczek was in that last game. Five errors from 40-15 up to losing the match. All unforced, too. What a shame. Still happy for Sam though. Huge win for Querrey. Why aren’t they showing Thiem right now?

  9. Thiem played Great today! But he was fortunate with Ferrer makingn tons of Unforced errors. Tons of shots going long and just not executing on the tough shots he usually makes. Not taking anything away from Thiem though. He’s proving he might be a legitimate threat for the French Open Major this year!

    #TeamThiem

  10. Where was Thiem vs Ferrer being shown? I’ll be able to watch highlights later but still just curious because they were playing Querrey and Smyczek on TC while Ferrer and Thiem were playing. Also huge win for Thiem there. He obliterated him. Great stuff.

  11. I have no idea where it was being televised. The last time I checked TC they were showing Delray Beach.

    I almost picked Thiem, but thought that Ferrer might get him this time. Obviously, I was wrong!

    • Same. Thiem played so much lately though that I thought he may be fatigued. Looks like I was wrong lol. He and Rafa should win their semis pretty comfortably. Well Thiem most likely will but Rafa may drop a set. I can’t wait if Thiem and Nadal meet in final though which will probably happen.

      • Benny,

        That would be something to see Rafa and Thiem meet again, only this time in the final with the title on the line.

        I take nothing for granted these days, but I am inclined to think that Rafa will beat either Cuevas or Delbonis. At least he should!

        I went back and forth with my pick for Thiem and Ferrer. I did wonder if Thiem might be fatigues, but it seems that winning seems to be giving him confidence and energy. He hasn’t slowed down yet.

        • Rafa will beat cuevas I think even if it’s tougher than expected. Cuevas had a pretty impressive tight straight sets win over Delbonis but Rafa is a whole different beast. Thiem should beat Pella as well though Pella may test him as he is playing fantastic tennis as well. If Thiem and Rafa met in final I don’t really know who I would pick. I would have to see how they did in their semifinals. Thiem could win that in three and so could Rafa. I say that final goes three either way but if it’s a two set final I would think Rafa wins. Rafa had match pint in buenos aires and forced Thiem to produce incredible shots at the end of that match to escape and I think Rafa would be hungry for revenge in that match. I would probably pick Rafa to win that match in three at this point but I’m not sure right now. Obviously Rafa and Thiem have to get past Cuevas and Pella first so we’ll see. All I know is I would pop some popcorn for that match.

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