Quito QF previews and predictions: Tomic vs. Lorenzi, Bellucci vs. Carreno Busta

PCB 2Traditional clay-courters have been taking care of business for the most part in Quito, but Bernard Tomic is still alive and will go up against Paolo Lorenzi during quarterfinal action on Friday. Thomaz Bellucci and Pablo Carreno Busta are also on the schedule.

(1) Bernard Tomic vs. (6) Paolo Lorenzi

Tomic and Lorenzi will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers and for the first time at the ATP level when they clash in the Ecuador Open quarterfinals on Friday. Their only previous meeting came six years ago on clay in the Napoli Challenger, with Lorenzi cruising 6-2, 6-4. The Italian once again has the advantage of playing on the slow stuff, but Tomic is obviously a far more established player at this point. Up to No. 20 in the world, the 23-year-old Australian owns three career titles (all at this 250-point level) and he is a stellar 8-3 this season with a semifinal performance in Brisbane and a fourth-round showing at the Aussie Open.

While Tomic earned a first-round bye as the top seed before holding off Roberto Carballes Baena 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, Lorenzi has advanced with straight-set victories over Gonzalo Escobar and Alejandro Falla. The 34-year-old had been 0-2 at the ATP level for his 2016 campaign, but those losses came on hard courts and he now has his favorite surface under his feet. Lorenzi is coming off a runner-up finish at a clay-court Challenger in Colombia. Clay will level the playing field, but this is a steep step up in competition for the sixth seed and Tomic should be motivated to do well this week now that he has one match under his belt.

Pick: Tomic in 3

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(3) Thomaz Bellucci vs. (8) Pablo Carreno Busta

Bellucci and Carreno Busta will be squaring off for just the second time in their careers at any level on Friday. Their only previous encounter came three years ago on the clay courts of Barcelona, where Bellucci pulled out a 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5 victory. At 35th in the world and on the brink of Grand Slam seeding, Bellucci earned the No. 3 seed in Quito–and with it a first-round bye. The Brazilian followed it up by cruising past Albert Montanes 6-2, 6-4.

Carreno Busta has advanced with wins at the expense of Rogerio Dutra Silva (6-3, 6-1) and Inigo Cervantes (6-7(5), 7-6(2), 6-2). The 67th-ranked Spaniard had been 0-2 for the year prior to this week, but he got bad draws in Doha (Rafael Nadal) and at the Australian Open (Nick Kyrgios). Clay obviously gives Carreno Busta a much better chance of success, and this should be a high-quality baseline battle. Bellucci is more rested than his opponent, who is also in the doubles semis, and should have a slight edge.

Pick: Bellucci in 3

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29 Comments on Quito QF previews and predictions: Tomic vs. Lorenzi, Bellucci vs. Carreno Busta

  1. I chose Bellucci to win the event at the start and if he wins this one I’ll probably keep going with him because it would be a high quality win but I’m actually gonna take PCB in 3. He has looked very good so far. Bellucci had a comprehensive win last round but I actually am feeling a victory for the Spaniard. Very tough call of course. This one’s a tossup in my mind. As for Tomic and Lorenzi, I’m taking Bernie in three. Clay gives Lorenzi a reasonable shot, but for some reason, I don’t see Tomic losing this one. Lorenzi does have potential to play a great match and win same as Tomic has potential to play a horrid match (because it’s clay).

  2. 2 of Bellucci’s titles were won on the clay of Gstaad. The other 2 were in Geneva and Santiago.

    And Quito is not in Brazil, which is where he notoriously chokes…
    Quito clay seems very possible for Bellucci.

    • True. I have a feeling PCB wins but Bellucci win wouldn’t surprise me either and if he won that he would have an even better chance in my mind because a win over PCB would be pretty impressive imo.

    • No coverage of Quito for me, ed. But Dreddy is playing highlight reel tennis v Bemelmens.

      Tomic – score appears that he might go from disinterested to Tank? Down a break in the 3rd?

      • Rats to you 😛 No need to rub salt in the wound!!!!

        Just about to watch Olivo who sent an out of sorts Verdasco packing on Wednesday. Will take a peek at livescores for the Dreddy match

        • So sorry, ed. 😉 On another thread I responded with much empathy for you – can’t believe no Montpellier coverage in France!

  3. It is sooo frustrating to watch a player just give up, such a waste of talent. You have to fight for every point if ya want to get to top.

  4. Also saw Bellucci won. Should’ve stuck with the original pick. Guess I underestimated him a little. I guess my original prediction of him taking the title still is possible. Pretty good week for PCB but some very impressive stuff for Thomaz, especially in the final set.

  5. Saw bernie, mr “top five at his best”, lost to Paolo. Vamos Lorenzi. Not surprised he gave up. Tomic did against gabashvili in Sydney a couple weeks back. I used to hate Tomic because he seemed way to overconfident and then last year I started to respect him a bit but now I’m back to not liking him so much. Definitely a bigger fan of NK and Kokkinakis than Bernie and I think those two have more potential than Tomic considering nicks skill and Thanasis maturity. Plus they can play on clay. No offense to Tomic but he can’t.

  6. Sadly he choked at the last fence and let Estrella Burgos back into the match. He’s still fighting and after two successive service breaks they’re are 4:4 but Olivo will have to serve now to stay in the match.

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