R2 previews and predictions: Wawrinka vs. Donaldson, Thiem vs. Carballes Baena

Stan Wawrinka will be trying to pick up some momentum in time for the French Open as he begins his Geneva campaign against Jared Donaldson on Tuesday. Dominic Thiem, meanwhile, is opening as the top seed in Lyon.

Banque Eric Sturdza Geneva Open: (3) Stan Wawrinka vs. Jared Donaldson

Comebacks–failing ones, slow-going ones, encouraging ones, and ones that have not even gotten off the ground–are a big story on the ATP Tour in 2018. Unlike Andy Murray, Wawrinka is at least back on the court. But unlike Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori, the Swiss has not posted any positive results. His only trip to a semifinal (at a 250-point event in Sofia) featured nothing more than wins over Martin Klizan and Viktor Troicki before ending with a loss at the hands of Mirza Basic. Wawrinka, who has slipped to No. 25 in the world, is just 3-5 this season and is 0-4 in his last four matches dating back to early February.

Next up for the former French Open champion is a second career contest against Donaldson, who lost their only previous encounter 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 at the 2016 Cincinnati Masters. Donaldson has improved since then, with 41 career ATP-level match victories (nine this season) and a ranking of No. 57 (nine spots off his career-high). The 21-year-old American has struggled so far on the red stuff, but he at least pushed Spaniards Roberto Bautista Agut and Pablo Carreno Busta to three sets in Madrid and Rome, respectively. Donaldson picked up his first clay-court win of the year by beating Denis Istomin 5-7, 6-4, 6-0 on Monday. With a match already under his belt, this is a good opportunity for Donaldson against a rusty opponent who did not even initially enter this tournament–despite the fact that it is it at home in Switzerland–before taking a late wild card.

Pick: Donaldson in 3

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Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon: (1) Dominic Thiem vs. Roberto Carballes Baena

Thiem and Carballes Baena will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash during Lyon second-round action on Tuesday. Both players are seeking their second clay-court titles of the season, which is obviously a surprise given that Thiem would have expected to own more and Carballes Baena would have expected to have none. But the eighth-ranked Austrian has struggled relative to his talent level, to the extent that Alexander Zverev and perhaps even Djokovic have arguably overtaken him as the biggest threats to Rafael Nadal at the French Open. Thiem benefited from conditions in Madrid to upset Nadal in the quarterfinals, but he got clobbered by the world No. 1 in Monte-Carlo, lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Barcelona, and fell right away in Rome to Fabio Fognini.

Carballes Baena found the winner’s circle for the first time in his career a few months ago in Quito as a qualifier. However, the 77th-ranked Spaniard is just 5-7 at the ATP main-draw level since then during a stretch that also includes first-round qualifying exits from Miami and Monte-Carlo. He managed to outlast qualifier Laslo Djere 7-6(3), 6-7(4), 6-3 after three hours and five minutes on Monday, but that does not bode well for his chances against a much, much tougher test in Thiem.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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4 Comments on R2 previews and predictions: Wawrinka vs. Donaldson, Thiem vs. Carballes Baena

  1. Stan in three, Thiem in two. Stan needs just a little bit of momentum before RG. Will fall literally hundreds of spots in the rankings if he loses early at RG

  2. We are talking about a previous RG champion here, not clown Monfils. If there’s any player than can turn it on like a tap, its Stanimal.

    Wawrinka in 2.

  3. Can you imagine Nadal having to face Stan or Novak in R3 at French Open?

    No doubt Wawa can turn it on quickly, though he usually saves that for slams. Still, if he’s healthy he should be fine. Stan and Thiem in 2.

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