Paris R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Mannarino, Wawrinka vs. Cilic

Rafael Nadal will begin the home stretch of his 2019 campaign when he opens in Paris against Adrian Mannarino on Wednesday. The winner will face whoever emerges from a second-round contest between Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic.

Adrian Mannarino vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal will be in action for the first time since the Laver Cup–and in an actual tournament for the first time since the U.S. Open–when he goes up against Mannarino in round two of the BNP Paribas Masters on Wednesday. The second-ranked Spaniard has not lost a match since the Wimbledon semifinals against Roger Federer, a stretch of 11 consecutive wins highlighted by titles at the Rogers Cup and the U.S. Open.

This marks the second career meeting between the two veterans, with Nadal having won their only previous encounter 6-1, 7-6(6) three years ago in Beijing. Mannarino earned another shot at the 19-time Grand Slam champion by easing past Casper Ruud 6-4, 6-2 on Monday night. The 43rd-ranked Frenchman reached recent finals in Zhuhai and Moscow, but he also fell in the first round at three other fall-swing tournaments. Although Nadal is never at his best this time of year, Mannarino does not have the firepower to seriously trouble him and the fact that the favorite has not lost since mid-July cannot be overlooked.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(16) Stan Wawrinka vs. Marin Cilic

Wawrinka and Cilic will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers on Wednesday. The fact that Wawrinka is leading the head-to-head series should come as no real surprise, but to say a 12-2 score is alarming would be a gross understatement. The 34-year-old Swiss has won eight in a row at Cilic’s expense dating back to the 2011 Indian Wells Masters, but they have not faced each other since 2017 (a 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 French Open blowout).

Based on current form, there is no reason to think Cilic will turn the tide. The 31-year-old Croat has slumped to No. 24 in the world with just 22 match wins for the season. He at least managed to beat Hubert Hurkacz 7-6(5), 6-4, but that is hardly enough to suggest he is ready to take down an opponent who is 9-2 in his last 11 matches dating back to the U.S. Open. Of course, the outcome of this match may be dictated by Wawrinka’s back issue, which forced him to withdraw from a scheduled Basel quarterfinal against Federer last week. If Paris’ 16th seed is healthy, he will likely cruise into the last 16.

Pick: Wawrinka in 2

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11 Comments on Paris R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Mannarino, Wawrinka vs. Cilic

  1. Rafa has a very challenging path ahead – Mannarino, Stan/Cilic, Berrettini/Struff, Sasha, Djoko/Thiem – certainly not easy even without Fed (in potential SF) and with Medvedev out (potential final).

    I just hope he moves ahead of Djoko whether he wins it or not, so that he can secure the YE no.1 here, thus will have lesser pressure at WTF (hope he wins that too!).

  2. Nadal has 19 slams not 18.

    I hope he can go deep in this tournament. His draw is difficult but I wish him good luck and believe that he can do it.

  3. Rafa served very well in this match. Mannarino never had a sniff of a break. Rafa looked a bit rusty but got it done. It’s a big step up to Stan. Rafa is healthy and that is the most important thing!

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