The College Football Playoff quarterfinals continue on New Year’s Day with a three-pack of games, starting with the Orange Bowl between the No. 5 Oregon Ducks and the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders. Oregon comes into this playoff game after putting up a 50-burger on James Madison in the first round, while Texas Tech is off a bye following its Big 12 Championship — setting up what I consider to be the best game on Thursday’s card. Make sure you kick that New Year’s Eve hangover quickly, as the CFP action begins at noon ET on ESPN.
Let’s get right into my Oregon vs. Texas Tech picks.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders odds
Money line: Oregon -130 / Texas Tech +110
Spread: Oregon -2.5 (-108) / Texas Tech +2.5 (-112)
Total: Over 51.5 (-112) / Under 51.5 (-108)
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders best bet #1: Oregon 1H ML (-125)
This matchup has late-game thriller potential and could ultimately go either way from a full-game perspective. However, I have a strong opinion about Oregon taking the lead into halftime despite playing this game at noon ET on the east coast with a 9:00 am PT body clock. Texas Tech certainly has a strong analytical profile, but I question if the Red Raiders have truly been tested in the way they will be against the Ducks on Thursday. Texas Tech comes into this game with a strength of schedule that ranks 65th per Sagarin, while Oregon’s current 12-1 record came against a top-15 strength of schedule, and its lone loss was to the undefeated, top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
The Red Raiders are extremely appealing as an underdog given how strong their defensive metrics are, but I would argue they have not played against an offense — particularly a passing attack — as strong as Oregon’s. Sitting at second in PFF’s passer grade, as well as top four in big-time throws and NFL passer rating, Oregon QB Dante Moore is the most prolific passer the Red Raiders will have seen at any point this year. Similarly, Oregon’s offensive line is the best blocking unit Tech will have lined up against. The Ducks sit atop the national standings in PFF’s pass blocking, while ranking top 15 in sacks and tackles for loss allowed and top 20 in PFF run blocking and non-garbage time line yards. This unit is built to withstand Texas Tech’s front-seven pressure, and it should be able to buy Moore enough time in the pocket to hit downfield throws against what amounts to be the weaker part of the Red Raider defense — the secondary.
It’s worth mentioning that — although the sample size is small in the young 12-team playoff format — no team with a first-round bye won its quarterfinal matchup last year. None of them led at halftime, either. The month-long layoff presents a rust element for the top-four teams in the bracket, as they face off against teams that played just a week and a half ago. I expect Oregon to use that to its advantage early in this matchup, not only because the Ducks already have a playoff game in their pocket, but also because head coach Dan Lanning and his program have been in the CFP quarterfinals before. Joey McGuire and Texas Tech have never been in this position before, and given the long break between the Big 12 title game and the CFP, I would imagine the Red Raiders suffer from more early-game jitters than the Ducks.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders best player prop bet: Dante Moore Over 231.5 passing yards (-115)
This number feels light considering how good Moore and the Oregon passing attack have been this year. The Ducks finished the regular season top 15 in both PPA per pass and passing success rate, while Moore threw for more than 3,000 yards and finished top three in completion percentage and top 15 in yards per attempt. He surpassed this number in eight of 12 FBS matchups this year, and given how strong Texas Tech’s front seven is, Moore will likely be relied upon to exploit the Red Raider secondary and move the Ducks methodically down the field.
As previously mentioned, Moore is the best quarterback Tech will have seen at any point this season. I would also argue that Kansas’ Jalon Daniels and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt are the two best passers the Red Raiders have seen thus far, and both of them surpassed this number with room to spare.
read more:
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