Rafael Nadal will be back in action in Rio de Janeiro when he takes the court against Andreas Seppi as the second round concludes at the Olympics on Tuesday. Benoit Paire and Fabio Fognini are also part of the schedule.
(3) Rafael Nadal vs. Andreas Seppi
Nadal’s latest comeback from injury could not have started any better, as he dominated his opener at the Rio Olympics 6-2, 6-1 against Federico Delbonis on Sunday. That marked the 2008 gold medalist’s first match since round two of the French Open, after which he missed the remainder of the Roland Garros procedings and Wimbledon because of a wrist injury. Nadal is 18-2 in his last 20 matches, although that can be attributed in part to the fact that all of those were contested on red clay. This hard-court surface is not quite as advantageous for the Spaniard, but at the same time it is not a particularly bad one for him.
It has to be said that Nadal got a favorable draw in round one with Delbonis on the other side of the net. In two previous blowouts of the Argentine, Nadal had lost a total of seven games in four sets. Another favorable matchup awaits the third seed on Tuesday, when he will take a 6-1 head-to-head record into a second-round date with Seppi. Nadal has won their last four meetings and has taken their last eight sets, including the most recent four by scores of 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, and 6-2. Seppi earned another shot at the 14-time major champion by outlasting Illya Marchenko in a third-set tiebreaker this past weekend. The Italian will have to raise his level exponentially if he even wants to be competitive with Nadal.
Pick: Nadal in 2
[polldaddy poll=9491676]
(16) Benoit Paire vs. Fabio Fognini
Paire and Fognini will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers at the main-tour level when they meet again on Tuesday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Paire’s way; 6-1, 6-4 on the clay courts of Belgrade in 2012 and 6-1, 6-3, 7-5 at last season’s French Open. At No. 32 in the world, the Frenchman is currently struggling to maintain seeded position for this year’s final Grand Slam–the U.S. Open. He is a disappointing 20-22 for his 2016 campaign but battled to a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory over Lukas Rosol in round one of the Olympics.
Although Fognini has also struggled at 17-14 this season, he recently captured a title on the red clay of Umag. The 40th-ranked Italian made a quick turnaround and also transitioned surfaces at the Toronto Masters, where he beat Steve Johnson before losing to American qualifier Jared Donaldson. Fognini kicked off his campaign this week by battling past Victor Estrella Burgos 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-0. Obviously just about anything can happen in a match between these two mercurial performers, but the jury is still out on Fognini’s current form given that he beat no one ranked better than 72nd in Umag. If Paire can serve well enough to dictate play and bludgeon a steady diet of backhands, he should be able to survive a competitive contest.
Pick: Paire in 3
[polldaddy poll=9492512]
Who is next
Simon says.
The draw repeated here for your convenience…
http://www.rio.itftennis.com/olympics/draws
Rafa vs Seppi match stats:
https://www.rio2016.com/en/tennis-mens-singles-second-round-te-5
Did not see the match, but looking at the statistics Rafa is not there yet! Too many UEs, 4 double faults, low % of points won on second serve! Simon will fight like hell, and Rafa must be ready for long rallies! Hope he gets some suitable rest before he plays his next match…
Vamos Rafa!
Rafa will beat Simon in 2 sets…
TOni kept saying that he are hoping Rafa gets a nice draw and I must say, their wish has been granted! It is almost an ideal draw till the semis (assuming he meets Delpo there).
I got to see my recording of Rafa’s match. I was amazed at how well he is hitting the backhand! Unreal! Someone has been practicing.
I assume that the wrist might affect his forehand. But there is so much to feel good about with the way Rafa is playing. Considering that he’s been off for over two months, I think his rhythm and timing is quite good.
Serving wasn’t that great today. A few DF’s. Paul Annacone was doing the commentary for Rafa’s match again and he made some good observations. He said that Rafa has taken some speed off his serves and it’s giving him a higher percentage of serves in. Also, Annacone said that Rafa’s footwork even in his first match, was better than expected.
vr,
Thanks for your analysis, too! You and Annacone! I really like Rafa’s positive body language, and hugging the baseline and getting good court positioning.
I am okay with the forehand errors because he has to keep going for those shots.
I think Simon could give Rafa more of a test if he’s on his game. He manages to get so many balls back like a human backboard.
I also think that Rafa has had two opponents who have given hm some good rallies that help him with the rhythm and timing on his groundstrokes. No big servers!
NNY, I agree with your approach of not looking too far ahead and taking one match at a time. However, I just watched a good highlights package and there was something about Rafa’s performance that really excited me. I was keeping a very close eye on every aspect. Some notable observations:
-Rafa is totally determined to establish a combibation with his forehan; he hits the first one CC and goes for depth down the middle or creates angle…once he realizes he made solid contact, he prepares to move forward and in this match took a lot of forehands on the rise ! He went both DTL and CC with ease. Not the first time he is doing this but there is real determinatiom behind this and I feel he is hell bent upon implementing it.
-He is hitting a higher proportion of forehands with an across-the-body follow through!!! EVEN THE CROSS COURT FOREHANDA and that is rare! So in this match, the buggy whip was used mainly to set up the ultimate forehands which are more aggresssive and hit with the conventional follow through. I know it is one match so will have to wait and see how conaistently he can do it esp against players who have more pace and weight behind their shots and tend to push Rafa back.
-Rafa has decided he is going to attack second serves, esp with his backhand and oh my, those backhand is burning through the air! Reminded me of AO 09!
He made lots of errors but majority were forehand erros which formed step 1 of his combo…he was going for depth and sent them a bit long…he will surely be able to control the ball better.
I think of Rafa can cut the errors a bit he will beat Simon in similar fashion. Simon’s fundamental game is similar to Seppi’s but yeah Simon is more capable to attacking with his backhand and generating more power with his forehand…he also has a better ROS.
My pick is Rafa in 2.
Rafa is cruising! Winning the doubles too and he has mixed doubles too. I hope he does not get tired. He is not ‘match-tough- at the moment.
vr,
Again many thanks for your observations. I am going to watch closely for Rafa’s shot patterns with the forehand. What you said about rafa going for the cc forehand and then following up with a DTL forehand, is interesting. Do you know why he is doing this now? It seems as though Rafa has been practicing on that backhand for sure! I haven’t seen him hit with such accuracy and purpose in some time. We forget what a weapon it can be.
This new combo of shots seems interesting. I like the idea that Rafa is making some changes. It’s encouraging.
I really like how Rafa has seemed to be so mentally focused. I was concerned after this latest injury that it might cause Rafa to doubt his body and maybe regress back to the mental lapses that plagued him last year.
I am looking forward to seeing Rafa against tougher competition. When Simon is on his game, he can provide a challenge with his deceptive power and ability to keep getting balls back in play. I have no idea what kind of form he’s in now.
I couldn’t help looking ahead in the draw, even as I try to take it one match at a time.
vr,
I think Rafa could meet Goffin in the quarterfinals. I think Ricky picked Goffin to beat Rafa in his predictions.
I don’t like looking ahead because I don’t take anything for granted. But I think Rafa will beat Simon and the he’s had some good match play under his belt.
One match at a time!
Rafa/Marc! just won their doubles qf! After the first few games Rafa was on fire! As if the Seppi match had just warmed him up.
Hoping Rafa gets past Simon. He always has except for that one time in Madrid indoors 2008 when his knees were giving out.
Oy. Just saw that Rafa has to play Simon and mixed doubles tomorrow. Ouch! Well, his legs seem to be in good shape anyway.
Rafa will pick up at least one gold. I think he has totally prioritized Olympics and doesn’t care for USO or any other tournaments this year. I am really worried about his wrist.
However it is wonderful to see Rafa playing so aggressive. It reminds me of 2013. Vamos Champ!
Rafa has three matches today?! OUCH! he needs to beat Simon 6-3 6-3 ish …. he can win gold in doubles ..Nestor Pospisil will be tough though.
I would love to see Rafa win gold in doubles. I am not sure about singles. I think Murray is looking good after winning Wimbledon. With Novak out, Murray has to be considered the favorite.
The concern with Rafa winning singles is the lack of match play coming back from injury. But every win Rafa gets is good for his confidence!