Carlos Alcaraz vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime may be a mismatch on paper, but nowhere is it a fairer fight than it is on an indoor hard court.
That’s why their semifinal showdown at the Nitto ATP Finals is a must-watch match on Saturday night, and one that could be more competitive than expected. Auger-Aliassime is an absolute force indoors, with seven of his eight lifetime titles coming on this surface. That includes a recent triumph in Brussels, which preceded a runner-up performance at the Paris Masters.
The 2025 U.S. Open semifinalist has carried his outstanding form into Turin. He opened with a loss to defending champion Jannik Sinner but bounced back to beat Ben Shelton 4-6, 7-6(7), 7-5 and Alexander Zverev 6-4, 7-6(4).
Saturday marks the eighth meeting between Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head series 4-3, having won four in a row heading into this high-stakes showdown. They faced each other three times last season, when the Spaniard prevailed in straight sets at the Indian Wells Masters, Roland Garros, and the Paris Olympics. However, Auger-Aliassime has won both of their previous indoor hard-court encounters–6-7(3), 6-4, 6-2 in the 2022 Davis Cup and 6-3, 6-2 in Basel.
Alcaraz rolled through his round-robin group without losing a match, thus clinching the year-end No. 1 ranking. The 22-year-old defeated Alex de Minaur 7-6(5), 6-2, Taylor Fritz 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3, and Lorenzo Musetti 6-4, 6-1.
This is Alcaraz’s third appearance in Turin; he has never made it past the semifinals. Despite being a heavy favorite, it won’t be easy for him to make it to the title match this time around. Auger-Aliassime is extremely difficult to break indoors, and he is not a guy against whom you want to play tiebreakers. The eighth-ranked Canadian is an amazing 32-14 in ‘breakers this season, including an unbelievable 20-3 in his last 23 dating back to the Cincinnati Masters.
Auger-Aliassime will have to play much better than he did against Zverev on Friday…but he probably will. There was more pressure on him in that match, plus it’s easy to get lulled into the German’s passive style of play from the baseline. That is not going to happen in this matchup, and Auger-Aliassime can play with nothing to lose.
Don’t be shocked if a first year-end championship final and first indoor win over Auger-Aliassime elude Alcaraz once more.
Pick: Auger-Aliassime in 3
WWW?
I agree this isn’t Alcaraz preferred surface by any means. King Felix in 3!
Yes, AA playing well, but that won’t be enough….Carlos in 2
I agree with scoot that Carlos will win but he may have to gut it out in 3 sets or 2 super tight sets. Carlos has more guile and variety to befox FAA who is one dimensional depending heavily on his serve. Plus Carlos is smart enough to exploit the weak backhand of FAA which Zverev did not.
For sure
Alcaraz in 3 but Felix definetely has a chance
One ‘FAA in three’ too far