Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Sinner vs. Rune

Jannik Sinner will be looking to build on one of the biggest wins of his career when he faces Holger Rune in the last Green Group round-robin match at the Nitto ATP Finals on Thursday night.

Sinner improved to 2-0 in Turin with a 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) victory over Novak Djokovic on Tuesday. That was preceded by a 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has since withdrawn from the tournament.

Despite his perfect record, Sinner has not yet clinched a spot in the semifinals. The 22-year-old will lock it up if Djokovic loses to Hubert Hurkacz on Thursday afternoon, but that would obviously be a big upset. Rune is still alive, too, with a 7-6(4), 6-7(1), 6-3 loss to Djokovic and a win over Tsitsipas via retirement.

Thus the stakes are high for this third meeting between Sinner and Rune. The head-head-head series stands at 2-0 in favor of the 20-year-old Dane, who got a retirement while leading 5-7, 6-4, 5-2 at the 2022 Sofia tournament and prevailed 1-6, 7-5, 7-5 in an absolutely wild affair at the Monte-Carlo Masters this spring.

Sinner basically had home-court advantage in Monte-Carlo and he has it again on Thursday; the atmosphere inside the Pala Alpitour has been raucous for the Italian. Of course, it’s not like Sinner needs any extra help these days. The world No. 4 has been amazing all season long regardless of the setting, with a 60-14 record that includes his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto, three other triumphs, and two runner-up performances–including in Miami.

Following a massive post-Wimbledon slump, Rune is rounding back into form with new coach Boris Becker in his box. The world No. 8 reached the Basel semifinals and the Paris semis, losing to Djokovic in another tight three-setter at the latter event. His performance against at the top-ranked Serb on Sunday offered even more encouragement, albeit in defeat.

This should be a good one. In some circumstances it would be easy for Sinner to have a letdown on the heels of such a big win, but the Italian crowd isn’t about to let that happen. If Djokovic beats Hurkacz and Sinner still needs a victory to guarantee semifinal qualification, he should be able to get the job done.

Pick: Sinner in 3