Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Fritz

Rafael Nadal and Taylor Fritz have already waged a couple of interesting battles in 2022, so it’s only fitting that they meet one more time–at least–in the last tournament of the year. They will headline the opening night session at the Nitto ATP Finals as round-robin competition in the Green Group gets underway on Sunday.

Their first encounter this season came in the Indian Wells final, where both players were less than 100 percent physically and Fritz prevailed 6-3, 7-6(5). Nadal was plagued by injury again in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, but he managed to defeat the American 3-6, 7-5, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(4) before withdrawing prior to the semis. The Spaniard leads the overall head-to-head series 2-1, having previously gotten the job done 6-3, 6-2 in the 2020 Acapulco championship match.

Nadal yet again may not be in peak form with Fritz on the other side of the net. The 22-time Grand Slam champion has played only one match since the U.S. Open because of an abdominal injury, and he lost it in round two of the Paris Masters (6-3, 6-7(4), 6-1 to Tommy Paul). That certainly isn’t ideal preparation heading into an event Nadal has never won in his entire career.

Fritz, on the other hand, has plenty of momentum. The world No. 9 has capped off his best-ever season with a productive fall swing in which he captured the Tokyo title to clinch a spot in the top 10 for the first time. Fritz did not quite qualify for Turin on his own, but the withdrawal of top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz propelled him from first alternate into the prestigious field of eight.

“I think every kid growing up and every player when you first start playing, (reaching the) top 10 is a massive milestone and it’s a dream that you want to tick off,” Fritz said. “Obviously everyone wants to be No. 1 in the world, top five, (and) there is more that I want to achieve. But I’ll always be a top-10 player. That can never be taken away from me.”

The 25-year-old will feel like he belongs in the Nitto ATP Finals–and he does. His season has been an awesome one and would be even better if not for occasional injuries and Wimbledon refusing to award ranking points.

With Nadal likely not at his best and playing a tournament that has given him trouble in the past, this is a great opportunity for Fritz.

Pick: Fritz in 3

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WWW: Nadal vs. Fritz?

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Who will win the Green Group?

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Who will win Turin?

15 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Fritz

  1. While it’s possible I doubt that will happen because Fritz has typically performed well on home soil and there was circumstances surrounding Nadal’s loss in Miami. Yes, Nadal hasn’t performed at his best in ATP Finals which is most likely due to it being the end of a long season and certain environmental factors but he should still have enough to beat Fritz when abroad and in his current form.

    Nadal is a great betting opportunity @ 1.75.

    • Sorry, that should be “while Fritz is abroad and in Fritz’s current form”. An attempt to reduce the wordage made it ambigious.

  2. I’m more worried about the fritz curse for nadal. Whenever he plays fritz he gets a big injury .IW final and wimbledon…however those injuries happened before the match ( alcaraz semi n 3rd round wimby ) but completely aggravated in fritz match and resulted in layoff for rafa

  3. Sanju! Have you seen Mega fascist/moron Pavvy G’s tweets? There are pages of insults about Rafa mixed in with all his moronic fascist conspiracy theories!!
    What a clown!!😀😀😀
    PS he is a fascist. I am not exaggerating…

  4. This is a tennis forum why does extreme right wing politics keep getting brought up ?

    ‘Insults’ could be that, but also could be home truths you uncomfortable with.

  5. Ppl, what’s up with RaFa”s return? Sigh! He does not look sharp, can’t take advantage of Fritz” second serve! Vamos Rafa!!

    • Rafa has been off on return since wimby. I watched the first set and that is enough for me.
      I never enjoy watching Rafa at the year end championship.
      I had zero expectations so can’t say I am disappointed…
      He seems to have no confidence in his bh.

  6. Hi Amy!!! How r u? I know I have been away long time with work and all. But I still enjoy coming on here!!

    Anyway, Rafa is rusty as a nail. I hate to c him lose especially this way. But I guess that’s life. Vamos, Rafa!!

    • I am very tired mona!! And you? Lovely to c u!!
      Tbh a big part of me was hoping he would skip the wtf. He has no self belief here…
      Not a fan of Fritz!

      • I stopped watching after the first set.
        Before the tournament started I said he might well.lose all 3 matches. Thinking that still holds…
        Just as long as he didn’t get murdered out there by Novak I am ok..

  7. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 yeah, just watching Rafa play is tiring too! He can’t seem to keep the ball inside the court…….much like Venus when she was starting to lose her luster!! So many UFEs it’s not even funny!! Fritz didn’t have to do much, Rafa just didn’t have it today. I guess he”s still jet lagged from the arrival of little Rafa 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

  8. I have no idea what is going on wuth Rafa. Now we know that he had two abdominal tears. One right before the USO. He has hardly played at all. I did not have great expectations from him in this tournament, but it’s hard to see him like this when he started the year off so well.

    I can’t even watch the tournament. The tennis channel and ESPN are not broadcasting it. I am not paying to watch it somewhere. But from what I am hearing about how Rafa is playing, he may well lose all three matches in his group.

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