Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Tsitsipas vs. Djokovic

A showdown between Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas is something you would generally expect to see in the championship match of the Nitto ATP Finals–and you very well might. But first they will square off on the opening day of round-robin competition in the Red Group on Monday night.

With Djokovic seeded seventh in Turin, a lopsided draw has him as the fourth and final seed in a loaded Red quartet that also includes Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, and Andrey Rublev. There are three former champions among them (Djokovic five times, Tsitsipas and Medvedev once each), whereas nobody in the Green Group has ever won this prestigious event.

This marks just the second time in their careers and the first time since their maiden meeting back in 2018 that Djokovic and Tsitsipas are colliding prior to the quarterfinals of a tournament. They have faced each other three times already in 2022, twice in finals prior to a semifinal date at the Paris Masters. Djokovic has won all three encounters this season and seven in a row overall, giving him a 9-2 record in the head-to-head series. However, Tsitsipas was extremely competitive a couple of weeks ago in Paris–where he succumbed 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(4).

Djokovic ended up losing the Paris final to Holger Rune, which is just one reason why he should be extremely motivated in Turin. Due in part to inactivity and a lack of Wimbledon ranking points, the 35-year-old finds himself down at No. 8 in the rankings. However, he could climb to fifth with a title. Djokovic has not lifted this trophy since 2015, which is hard to believe given how dominant he has been at times over the past six years. A sixth Nitto ATP Finals triumph would give Djokovic a huge boost going into 2023.

Between the two of them, Djokovic (three for three) and Tsitsipas (two for four) have been to five finals in seven tournaments during the fall swing. Tsitsipas finished runner-up to Djokovic in Astana and to Rune in Stockholm to go along with his Paris semifinal effort and a Vienna second-round exit at the hands of Borna Coric. The third-ranked Greek is just 1-3 in four Nitto ATP Finals matches since lifting the trophy in 2019.

This Djokovic-Tsitsipas matchup is competitive more often than not, but it’s hard to see the underdog ending his seven-match losing streak.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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WWW: Tsitsipas vs. Djokovic?
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Who will win the Red Group?
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9 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Tsitsipas vs. Djokovic

  1. It’s hard for you to see because your limited by what you have seen, not by the reasoning that allows you to make assertions about the future.

  2. You’ll be a lot more successful if you use “reasoning” rather than what everyone else thinks.

    i.e the bookmakers odds and all the other prediction sites.

  3. The first round matches are a lottery because you have a combination of players that might be in slightly better form but the opposing player having strong motivation that put the chances of them losing in the low probability range.

    Therefore, upsets are definitely on the cards but the favs could win like it all panned out as expected.

    So, playing the game of I got this right and you got that wrong, is just BS at this stage of the event. Too many unknowns.

    But, one thing is for sure, you wouldn’t want to be making predictions like its written in stone.

  4. The probability of Djokovic being a bit tired mentally or physically after Paris is at least 50% which makes Tsitsipas a great bet @ 3.50, win or lose.

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