Thursday Night Football in Week 11 of the NFL season is a showdown in the AFC East between the New York Jets and New England Patriots. It has been a tale of two very different 2025 campaigns for these two teams. New York comes in with a 2-7 record, while New England is atop the division at 8-2.
Let’s dive into my Jets vs. Patriots predictions.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots odds
Money line: Jets +575 / Patriots -850
Spread: Jets +12.5 (-105) / Patriots -12.5 (-110)
Total: Over 43.5 (-108) / Under 43.5 (-112)
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots best bet #1: Under 43.5 (-112)
Perhaps because they make for short weeks and offer less time for preparation, Thursday Night Football games tend to be ugly, low-scoring slogs (unless, of course, the Cincinnati Bengals are involved). These two teams are most definitely not the Bengals. The Jets have little semblance of an offense; the Patriots boast a stellar defense. As such, the recipe is there for the under to cash.
Cold and windy conditions in Foxborough also won’t help the offensive attacks. Even in favorable conditions, it’s not like New York has the potential to post a big number. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s outfit ranks no better than No. 26 in the NFL in EPA per pass, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns. It is dead last in passing offense. Why should we expect anything to change against New England? The Patriots rank top five defensively in all of the aforementioned categories. As for the Jets’ defense, it is a bit depleted following the trade deadline but still playing hard. New York sacked Cleveland QB Dillon Gabriel six times during last week’s 27-20 victory.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots best player prop bet: Drake Maye Under 241.5 passing yards (-113)
Betting against Maye is no real knock on him individually. After all, he is currently favored to win NFL MVP. The simple fact is that he may not throw enough passes to exceed this number. New England is a huge -12.5 favorite, so it is expected to be playing with a healthy lead from start to finish on Thursday. That means the home team will likely keep the ball on the ground and run the clock.
That’s what the Pats should do against the Jets regardless of the score, too. New York is very good against the pass (No. 8 league wide), allowing only 190.8 yards per game on 6.8 yards per attempt. However, it is No. 25 against the run (138.2 yards per game allowed on 4.6 yards per carry).
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