What: Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 of the NBA Western Conference semifinals
When: Sunday, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
Where: Paycom Arena, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Odds: Thunder -8.5, Over/Under 213.5
Thunder vs. Nuggets head-to-head
2-2 during regular season, 3-3 in series
October 24 @ Denver: Thunder 102-87
November 6 @ Denver: Nuggets 124-122
March 9 @ Oklahoma City: Thunder 127-103
March 10 @ Oklahoma City: Nuggets 140-127
Game 1 @ Oklahoma City: Nuggets 121-119
Game 2 @ Oklahoma City: Thunder 149-106
Game 3 @ Denver: Nuggets 113-104 (OT)
Game 4 @ Denver: Thunder 92-87
Game 5 @ Oklahoma City: Thunder 112-105
Game 6 @ Denver: Nuggets 119-107
Nuggets vs. Thunder preview
It’s only fitting that what was by far the best of the conference semifinal series will end with a Game 7. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets will battle on Sunday afternoon for a spot in the Western Conference Finals, with the winner to face Minnesota. Six games represent a large enough sample size to prove that these two teams are evenly matched–or at least it’s more even than their respective regular-season records would suggest. As such, grabbing 8.5 points with Denver is intriguing. But Over 213.5 looks like an even better play. The over/under for Game 6 was 217.5 and 226 points were scored. Now the number is all the way down at 213.5. Keep in mind that it was as high as 232 for Game 3 and before Game 6 it had not been lower than 221.5. The average was 227 through the first five contests of this series. It’s true that Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon might not play on Sunday, but the over on such a small total is still a great bet.
In addition to a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday, 240 points were put up in the series opener and Game 2 finished with 255. The two best offensive players in the NBA are part of this matchup and they have not disappointed so far. Soon-to-be MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder has exceeded the 30-point mark six times in the last eight outings dating back to the first round of the playoffs against Memphis. Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets is averaging 29.8 ppg in this series and has surpassed the 40 mark twice. Denver’s star big man is also getting plenty of help (four other teammates are averaging in double-figures during the playoffs), especially from Jamal Murray (22.5 ppg in the playoffs). Murray has delivered 28 and 25 points in the last two contests even without shooting the ball particularly well. Just think what he–and the Nuggets–could produce if his outside shot starts falling. Given the incredible overall offensive firepower that both sides possess, I’m once again going with the over.
Pick: Over 217.5
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