What: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference semifinals
When: Thursday, 8:30 pm ET, ESPN
Where: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Odds: Thunder -4.5, Over/Under 217.5
Thunder vs. Nuggets head-to-head
2-2 during regular season, 3-2 Thunder in series
October 24 @ Denver: Thunder 102-87
November 6 @ Denver: Nuggets 124-122
March 9 @ Oklahoma City: Thunder 127-103
March 10 @ Oklahoma City: Nuggets 140-127
Game 1 @ Oklahoma City: Nuggets 121-119
Game 2 @ Oklahoma City: Thunder 149-106
Game 3 @ Denver: Nuggets 113-104 (OT)
Game 4 @ Denver: Thunder 92-87
Game 5 @ Oklahoma City: Thunder 112-105
Thunder vs. Nuggets preview
This has been by far the best conference semifinal series–and the only one that hasn’t been plagued by significant injuries. The Nuggets went up after Game 1 and again after Game 3, but now it is the Thunder who are in control after winning Game 4 in Oklahoma City and Game 5 in Denver. It is becoming clear that OKC is the superior team (we already knew that coming into the series), but it still doesn’t seem wise to give the Nuggets 4.5 points in Denver. Nor can you feel comfortable about Oklahoma City covering 4.5 on the road. The over/under looks like a better play, especially with the total all the way down at 217.5. Keep in mind that it was as high as 232 for Game 3 and it previously had not been lower than 221.5. The average was 227 through the first five contests of this series. Now that it’s much lower, the value is on the over.
Yes, there have been some relatively low-scoring slogs between these two sides in recent days. Still, you can’t look past the fact that Game 1 produced 240 points and Game 2 exploded for 255. The two best offensive players in the NBA are part of this matchup–soon-to-be MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Oklahoma City and Nikola Jokic of Denver. SGA has exceeded the 30-point mark five times in the last seven games dating back to the first round of the playoffs against Memphis; Jokic is averaging 30.0 ppg in this series and has surpassed 40 twice. The Nuggets’ star big man is also getting plenty of help (four other teammates are averaging in double-figures during the playoffs), especially from Jamal Murray (22.3 ppg) and Aaron Gordon (17.8 ppg). There is just a lot of offensive firepower on the floor–enough to take this showdown over 217.5.
Pick: Over 217.5
Leave a Reply