With the French Open less than a month away, we have already reached the halfway point of the clay-court swing. But there are still two more Masters 1000 events to be played before the season’s second Grand Slam takes center stage. One is underway in Madrid, where Rafael Nadal returns to action in search of a sixth title in front of the home crowd. Nadal is the No. 1 seed because Novak Djokovic is skipping this tournament; the Spaniard is followed by Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Also among the expected title contenders are Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Jannik Sinner.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 2,614,465 Euros
Points: 1,000
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
2019 champion: Novak Djokovic (not playing)
Draw analysis: Aside from being on the opposite side from Tsitsipas, the Madrid draw ceremony was not especially kind to Nadal. The 20-time Grand Slam champion could have intriguing matchups on his hands from start to finish. Carlos Alcaraz, thought to be the next great Spanish player, is potentially Nadal’s opening opponent. The 34-year-old could then run into a red-hot Jannik Sinner in the last 16. Zverev would likely be Nadal’s quarterfinal adversary, while Rublev is on a collision course with Nadal for the semis.
Rublev may first have to get past familiar for Bautista Agut in round three. They have already faced each other twice this season, with Bautista Agut dominating in Doha before Rublev survived a three-set thriller in Monte-Carlo. Thiem is the highest seed in the second section of the bracket, but the two-time French Open runner-up has not played since mid-March and has won just a single match since the Australian Open.
Thiem is not the only top-four seed who is a question mark this week. Medvedev is the same–but for a much different reason. The third-ranked Russian is simply a novice on clay compared to how good he is on hard courts. With Medvedev vulnerable, the bottom of the Madrid bracket could be open for Matteo Berrettini, Cristian Garin, Pablo Carreno Busta, or Estoril champion Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
It is Tsitsipas who has to be considered the favorite to reach the final out of the bottom half of the draw. The fifth-ranked Greek could open with Munich title winner Nikoloz Basilashvili before running into either Felix Auger-Aliassime or Casper Ruud in the last 16. Auger-Aliassime vs. Ruud is one of the marquee first-round matchups. Also watch out for Denis Shapovalov and Aslan Karatsev in Tsitsipas’ section.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, Roberto Bautista Agut, Pablo Carreno Busta, Hubert Hurkacz, Jannik Sinner, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Dan Evans, Aslan Karatsev, Cameron Norrie, Nikoloz Basilashvili
Cold: Dominic Thiem, Denis Shapovalov, Kei Nishikori, Fernando Verdasco, Guido Pella, John Millman, John Isner, Benoit Paire
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev over Alex de Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas over Aslan Karatsev, and Pablo Carreno Busta over Cristian Garin
Semifinals: Rafael Nadal over Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas over Pablo Carreno Busta
Final: Nadal over Tsitsipas
Incredible draw….much like RG will be in a few weeks….Rublev!
Nothing against Nadal, just calling it how I see it. I think he might bomb out early in Madrid. His draw is not easy and I come back to what I was saying earlier; you have less peak periods the older you get and he’s nearing that age where the stats/records are telling.
Tsitsipas is probably getting a bit tired also.
Berrettini could be a bit of a dark horse. He’s peaking and wouldn’t be getting tired just yet. Schwarzman could be starting to peak as well.
This could also be an opportunity for Medvedev to find some form on clay in more favorable conditions. I like that side of the draw.
Thiem is the unknown factor. He’s certainly a chance as well.