It will be the first meeting between former UVA Cavaliers Rafael Jodar and Brandon Nakashima as both men fight for their first-ever Masters 1000 final spot.
Rafael Jodar started this season at No. 168 in the world. He is now up to No. 11 in the live rankings and he has spent this fortnight carving his way through the National Bank Open draw at the expense of Corentin Moutet, Lorenzo Musetti (6-4, 6-3), eighth seed Jiri Lehecka (6-3, 6-3), and Arthur Fils (7-6(5), 6-3 in a rain-interrupted quarterfinal on Tuesday). Strangely, he beat Fils a week ago in Washington, D.C. with the exact same scoreline. At 19 years old, Jodar is the first man born in 2006 or later to reach a Masters 1000 semifinal, and he is doing it in the week after making the Washington final. There is a fatigue question buried somewhere in that schedule, but I haven’t seen it show up on court quite yet.
Brandon Nakashima has been excellent, too, so I don’t want to shortchange him. He turned 25 last week, and he is the oldest man left in the draw. Since bringing Wayne Ferreira into his box in June, Nakashima has made semifinals at three of four events. He never faced real trouble on serve against Luciano Darderi in the quarters, firing 11 aces against a single double-fault while winning 30 of 36 first-serve points and saving all four break points in a 77-minute stroll.
Before that, Nakashima came through Arthur Rinderknech 7-6(4), 5-7, 7-5 during yet another waterlogged day. The American has nerves aplenty. He wins on serve with placement and disguise rather than raw pace, and that delivery has been the best it has looked all season.
The problem is that returning has been the entire story of Jodar’s week. Musetti, Lehecka, and Fils all got broken early and often, and the way Jodar covers the court at 6’3” is exactly the thing that makes a server start pressing. There is rain in the Montreal forecast again on Wednesday, and damp, heavy air takes the sting off a serve built on location more than power. Jodar has been the sharper player in the big moments, too.
You could say Jodar is shaping up to be a big-moment player, which is great news for Spanish fans but less so for Nakashima.
Cheryl pick: Jodar in 2
Ricky pick: Jodar in 2
Definitely Jodar probably even to win the title
WWW?
Jodar in 3. He has exceeded all expectations.
Naka is fast, and tough…in 3.
bold
nice pick…for once
Nakashima had a higher return rating than Jodar in his last match, Jodar in 3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.
It’s also interesting to look at the ATP serve leaderboard, where Nakashima currently sits at No.12, way above Fils and Fonseca, and Jodar at No.51. (But Jodar is already at No.4 on the ATP returners leaderboard; imagine how he will play in a couple of years if he stays healthy!)
I had no idea Nakashima was a Top 12 server! He must be putting other parts of his game together better now; Wayne Ferreira, who was one of my favourite players, is good to have in his corner!
Naka’s serve is incredible
pinpoint precision
Nakashima is currently outgunning young Jodar in every department except first serve speed and looks like he’s going to gallop away with this match.
Good pick there, Scoot. He probably won’t need 3.
made it interesting in the end, but Naka got across the finish line
Life would be boring if it was readily predictable!😉
Jodar isn’t far from bigger things. He’s doing remarkably well for his age especially. It will be so interesting to see how he goes vs Sinner and Alcaraz two years from now. When he’ll still be ridiculously young even for a tennis player!