Montpellier, Sofia, and Quito previews and predictions

And just like that the dog days of February are upon us. Fewer than 24 hours after Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray for the Australian Open title, action will be under way around the world. The indoor hard-court swing begins in Montpellier and Sofia, while others are heading to the clay of South America. Among those in action this week are Richard Gasquet, Marin Cilic, Gilles Simon, Benoit Paire, Bernard Tomic, and Roberto Bautista Agut.

Open Sud de France

Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 463,520 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Richard Gasquet
Defending champion: Richard Gasquet

Draw analysis: The last time Simon was seen on a tennis court, he famously coaxed eventual Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic into an outrageous 100 unforced errors during a five-setter in the fourth round. Small 250-point events at home in France have always been right up Simon’s alley and he should be in line for more success this week. The third seed is in the same half as Gasquet, who has not yet played this season because of a back injury.

A distinct French flavor also headlines the bottom half of the bracket, which hosts Cilic, Paire, Monfils, Julien Benneteau, and Paul-Henri Mathieu. Monfils, a quarterfinalist in Melbourne, should cruise into a quarterfinal date with Paire. Cilic may face tough tests in the form of Alexander Zverev (round two) and Borna Coric (quarters).

First-round upset alert: Lukas Lacko over (8) Marcos Baghdatis. Baghdatis has not done much of anything since reaching the Atlanta final last summer. Lacko is not in great form, either, but he leads the head-to-head series 2-1—including 1-0 indoors. This matchup between two players who feature strikingly similar styles should be up for grabs.

Hot: Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, Joao Sousa, Quentin Halys, John Millman

Cold: Marcos Baghdatis, Ernests Gulbis, Lukas Lacko, Jan-Lennard Struff, Julien Benneteau

Semifinal predictions: Gilles Simon over Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils over Marin Cilic

Final: Simon over Monfils

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Sofia Open

Where: Sofia, Bulgaria
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 463,520 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Roberto Bautista Agut
Defending champion: None (inaugural event)

Draw analysis: Bulgaria’s own Grigor Dimitrov is conspicuously absent from this tournament in his home country, leaving Bautista Agut as the clear title favorite. The 18^th-ranked Spaniard lifted the Auckland winner’s trophy before upsetting Marin Cilic en route to the Aussie Open fourth round. Bautista Agut’s draw is not especially difficult, but he could run into Hyeon Chung in the quarterfinals and either Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or Gilles Muller in the semis.

The other side of the bracket is much deeper. Among the group of players who are not even seeded are Lukas Rosol, Robin Haase, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Jiri Vesely, and big-serving qualifier Daniel Brands. Rosol and Haase are going head-to-head right away, while Stakhovsky opens against Philipp Kohlschreiber. Second-seeded Viktor Troicki has a tough draw that may force him to beat Brands and Kohlschreiber just to reach the semifinals.

First-round upset alert: Evgeny Donskoy vs. (8) Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino owns wins over Donskoy at the Challenger level and in ATP qualifying, but the Russian took their only previous main-draw showdown (and their only previous indoor encounter) three years ago in St. Petersburg. Donskoy played stellar tennis last fall, whereas Mannarino has slumped since a torrid start to the 2015 campaign.

Hot: Roberto Bautista Agut, Viktor Troicki, Hyeon Chung, Mirza Basic, Damir Dzumhur

Cold: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Martin Klizan, Adrian Mannarino, Matthew Ebden, Daniel Brands

Semifinal predictions: Roberto Bautista Agut over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Viktor Troicki over Lukas Rosol

Final: Bautista Agut over Troicki

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Ecuador Open

Where: Quito, Ecuador
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $463,520
Points: 250

Top seed: Bernard Tomic
Defending champion: Victor Estrella Burgos

Draw analysis: The Golden Swing begins with the second-ever Ecuador Open. Although the field is not exactly loaded, it is stronger than the 2015 version in part thanks to Tomic. The top-seeded Aussie is coming off a fourth-round performance in Melbourne and he generally thrives in South America (at least he does on the hard courts of Bogota). Clay is not Tomic’s strong suit, however, so contenders such as Thomaz Bellucci and Pablo Carreno Busta may be able to do some damage in the top half of the draw.

Last year’s inaugural event saw Victor Estrella Burgos outlast Feliciano Lopez 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-6(5) for the title. There will be no rematch in the final because those two veterans are both in the bottom half. Estrella Burgos and Lopez could meet again in the semis, but the Dominican Republic native’s form has completely disappeared. A more likely semifinal would pit Lopez against occasional doubles partner for Fernando Verdasco, who upset Rafael Nadal Down Under.

First-round upset alert: Guido Pella over (5) Victor Estrella Burgos. After five meetings in Futures or Challengers (Estrella Burgos leads 3-2), they will be facing each other for the first time at the ATP level. Pella recently advanced to the Australian Open second round and lost a five-set marathon to Lopez. An ice-cold Burgos has the pressure of defending champion points from the 2015 event.

Hot: Bernard Tomic, Austin Krajicek, Inigo Cervantes, Guido Pella

Cold: Victor Estrella Burgos, Pablo Carreno Busta, Alejandro Falla, Alejandro Gonzalez, Horacio Zeballos

Semifinal predictions: Thomaz Bellucci over Bernard Tomic and Guido Pella over Feliciano Lopez

Final: Bellucci over Pella

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!