Monte-Carlo R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Isner, Federer vs. Monfils

Isner 1Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have intriguing third-round showdowns on their hands at the Monte-Carlo Masters on Thursday. Nadal is facing John Isner, while Federer is going up against Gael Monfils.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (15) John Isner

Nadal and Isner will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers when they collide in round three of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Thursday. All four of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way, none more famously than in the 2011 French Open first round–when the Spaniard survived 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-4 and eventually captured the title. Nadal and Isner also faced each other on clay at the 2010 Madrid Masters, where the former world No. 1 advanced 7-5, 6-4. Their other two clashes came on American hard courts, yet Nadal still had enough to get past Isner (7-5, 3-6, 6-3 five years ago in Indian Wells and 7-6(8), 7-6(3) in the 2013 Cincinnati final).

It has already been a stellar tournament for Isner, whose opening loss in Houston to Teymuraz Gabashvili appears to be just a hiccup in an otherwise consistent ascension back to form. The world No. 19 recovered from an awful start to the season by reaching the last 16 in Indian Wells and the semifinals in Miami (lost to Novak Djokovic on both occasions). Nadal struggled at the two hard-court Masters tournaments but he is back on his old stomping grounds of red dirt. The eight-time Monte-Carlo benefited from the surface change in the form of a 6-2, 6-1 victory over wild card Lucas Pouille on Wednesday. Isner has the prototypical game to give Nadal problems: a huge serve and a punishing inside-out forehand that can open up the deuce side of the court to exploit the 14-time Grand Slam champion’s backhand. But Isner has never gotten all the way over the hump against Nadal and there is no reason to think he will do so for the first time at one of his opponent’s favorite events.

Pick: Nadal in 2 with 1 tiebreaker
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(14) Gael Monfils vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Monfils had more history with each other in 2014 than many other player pairs have in their entire careers. They squared off three times, first with Federer prevailing 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 in Cincinnati prior to a duo of far more memorable contests. Monfils held a two-set lead in the U.S. Open quarters and came within one point of finishing the job only to see Federer storm back for a 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 triumph. In the Davis Cup final, though, Monfils turned the tide and treated the French crowd to a 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 domination. That is Federer’s only blemish at Monfils’ hands on clay. The Swiss has won four of their five encounters on the slow stuff and he has an 8-3 edge in the overall head-to-head series.

The two competitors took much different paths to the Monte-Carlo third round. Federer earned an opening bye then disposed of Jeremy Chardy 6-2, 6-1 in less than an hour’s work on Wednesday. Monfils came back from a set down to defeat Andrey Kuznetsov before battling past Alexandr Dolgopolov 7-6(5), 7-6(6). Although the 35th-ranked Frenchman took Federer apart in Davis Cup, that result is easily explained: the current world No. 2 was far less than 100 percent and coming off a tumultuous week at the World Tour Finals in London. Federer is well-rested and in great form this time around.

Pick: Federer in 2

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38 Comments on Monte-Carlo R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Isner, Federer vs. Monfils

  1. What a relief! I couldn’t even relax after Rafa got the break. I just hoped that he would hold his serve.

    Now I can reveal that I voted in the poll for Rafa beating Isner in three sets. I didn’t want to say anything on the site. But I felt that Isner might get a set off Rafa. But I hoped that Rafa would do it in two.

    I don’t care. Two sets, three sets. It’s a win! This is a good one for Rafa. He’s going to need the confidence boost with Ferrer next.

    I was trying to check the results on the ATP website and saw the scoreline for the Fed/Monfils match. I had to rub my eyes! Monfils beat Fed in two sets? Wow!

  2. This victory means a lot…great for Rafa and certainly great for us his fans… Rafa go ahead with your improvements! You are getting there!
    Vamos Rafa!

  3. Great win for Rafa recovering after losing second set (unlike IW).

    He didn’t play particularly badly when he was broken in the 2nd set. Isner took his chances playing crazy aggressive and it paid off. The time violation on BP didn’t help. I timed it. It came 28 seconds after the point ended and just 20 seconds after the chair umpire called the score. Dumbest rule in tennis.

    A win over Ferrer tomorrow would be great for his confidence as little beast is having a stellar 2015 with an impressive 23-3 record and beat Rafa in the QF last year.

    • True…tough match for Rafa tomorrow…it’s the price Rafa needs to pay in his “growing in confidence” exercise..everyone is ready to give him a fight…I looked at the draw again and can’t help but wondering how the hell Novak has got such an easy draw..he will hardly sweat on the court…call it lucky… during Rafa’s match I thought: When will Rafa get lucky a bit, just a little bit so that he does not need to earn ever single point the hard way…

      • To be fair, Rafa has had many easy draws this year but wasn’t ready to take advantage of them. Having said that, Nole does tend to have easy draws. I’m not at al worried about Rafa playing Ferrer.

  4. When the result was flashed on to the screen somewhere far away from the stadium, J.Isner got booed and hissed by American tourists. (Like it happened after his loss to Rafa at the French Open years ago).

    • American tourists??? You wouldn’t by any chance have a “reliable” source for that piece of wishful revisionism now would you.

      Besides, this is not what Uncle Toni and Rafa said but, by your own definition, they must be unreliable.

      Hilarious!!!

      • Why must this nonsense about American tourists booing the Isner loss be thrown around here one more time? It’s just outrageous for anyone to post something that is insulting to American tourists. Rafa has millions of American fans.

        It’s obnoxious and offensive, but unfortunately the source is not surprising.

      • I don’t know. I didn’t post a comment about American tourists booing a result. Check the comment @ 3:25 pm. That’s what instigated this discussion. Honestly, I have no idea what it has to do with a discussion of the match at all.

  5. COME ON ! THAT was a very important win . I believe this win is full of positives. yes, he should have won in 2 but in a way it is good that he lost that second set and got the chance to vanquish his demons! he came back and hopefully at least erased the bad memory of his painful loss to Raonic. Rafa was full of positive energy in the third set and he was pumped !

    I think the quality of rafa’s hitting has been very good so far. He defended his forehand side so well today. Isner was creaming inside-out and DTL forehands to attack rafa’s forehand but rafa defended extremely well. His backhand counterpunching has been solid too. What of course is allowing him to do this is his phenomenal movement. He is moving like a rabit out there and even at 29 (almost) he is the best mover out there on clay. He is everywhere when in full flow !

    Rafa is confidently running around his backhand to take command with his forehand. He is definitely feeling the ball really well in the practice sessions and is confident about his improving level of play (as described after IW and after his first round win here). The problem is confidence and he seems to be slowly finding a way to overcoming it.

    A win against ferrer would inject plenty of confidence and ready him to play big moments with less nerves.

    His serve has been decent too ! He is hitting the right spots. I like what I am seeing from rafa He should technically now go up a gear and keep building confidence.

    Novak has played a lot lately and I reckon he is mentally not 100%. If rafa can improve further by beating ferrer, he will have his chances.

    • I like Cilic’s chances better than if Tsonga had won. Cilic’s game is more of an unknown and has more upside to pull off what would be a huge upset.

      Aside: If BabyFed makes the finals (soft draw side), Stan will be out of the Top 10. A certain Stan defender will not be happy. 🙂

    • vamosrafa,

      I was thinking the same thing regarding Cilic. I don’t think he’s back to his best but if he can play decent tennis then I think he can at least give Novak a match. I also agree with hawkeye that Cilic has a better shot than Tsonga. Cilic has that big serve and powerful groundstrokes and is not as much of a head case as Tsonga. Novak knows Tsonga too well.

      I did hear that Stan is out. So with Fed also out, that part of the draw is wide open for someone to take advantage.

      I do think this was an important win, because Isner hung in there and got that second set and Rafa had to regroup. He stayed strong in the third set to get the break and then held his serve! I thought his serving was very good. The last count I heard was seven aces. I also agree that his movement was great on the court. He seemed much more comfortable and most important to me, mentally focused throughout the match.

      I thought that the way Rafa won that first set tb was huge. He easily could have lost it. But he brought the goods when it counted. That is what has been missing! This is a great win that will give Rafa some confidence and good feelings.

      He’s going to need it against Ferrer. Normally I would not worry about Ferrer, but with Rafa being shaky these days and Ferrer having knocked him out in the quarterfinals last year here, I am not taking anything for granted.

      I have to believe that Rafa will want to have a different result this time against Ferrer. I would really like to see him get to the semis and then have a good shot at the final!

  6. Roger says:
    “There are many things I could have done better. I could have served better. I could have mixed it up a bit better. Also I didn’t play my slice backhand well enough. There are some things I did a little bit better and some other things I didn’t do well. Anyway, I never felt comfortable during the whole match… I only have to accept what went wrong and go from there.”

    It’s all about The Fed, ’bout The Fed, no Ga-el…

  7. That is one match that I want to see on the replay later on the tennis channel. I have to see this! I never would have thought that Monfils had a shot at beating Fed.

    I don’t care about Fed’s excuses. It’s what he does.

  8. hawkeye,

    I didn’t know that about the h2h. But honestly, Monfils is all over the place and quite inconsistent. He’s certainly capable of brilliant tennis, but he can’t keep it up on a regular basis. He’s streaky.

    What about that match where Monfils was up two sets on Fed and then lost the next three sets? Was that at last year’s USO? It’s one reason why I won’t bet on him to beat Fed.

    I had to go out and missed most of the replay of the match. I came back in time to see the last half of the second set. Ugly stuff from Fed who was up 5-3 in the second set tb. He missed some easy shots and that was it. I think they may replay it again later tonight. From what I saw Monfils played really well, but Fed was not good at all.

    Did you honestly think beforehand that Monfils had a real chance this time?

  9. Folks it is very good it went to 3 for Rafa. He had to shake his 3 set loss demons out of his head. Remember losses to raonic , verdasco , foginini all happened in 3 sets

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